Chelsea v Newscastle United: the predictions, the psychology, the injuries

We would expect Chelsea, a top four contending club, to be strong at home, and so they are…

Home games only

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Manchester City 11 10 0 1 37 10 27 30
2 Liverpool 10 9 1 0 27 3 24 28
3 Arsenal 11 8 2 1 24 10 14 26
4 Chelsea 11 6 4 1 19 8 11 22

But not quite as strong as we might expect with four draws and a defeat in the 11 games.

Newcastle United have a reputation of being very poor this season, but actually their away form isn’t that bad…

Away matches only

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Tottenham Hotspur 12 10 0 2 28 12 16 30
2 Liverpool 11 8 2 1 22 7 15 26
3 Chelsea 10 7 1 2 19 8 11 22
4 Manchester City 10 6 2 2 19 7 12 20
5 Manchester United 11 5 2 4 22 19 3 17
6 Leicester City 11 5 2 4 13 13 0 17
7 Arsenal 10 4 3 3 22 21 1 15
8 Wolverhampton Wanderers 10 4 3 3 11 10 1 15
9 West Ham United 10 4 2 4 13 14 -1 14
10 Watford 10 3 4 3 14 13 1 13
11 Crystal Palace 11 4 1 6 14 17 -3 13
12 Newcastle United 10 2 5 3 8 12 -4 11

Yes only two wins away but they have had five away draws.   So Chelsea knocking up home draws and Newcastle getting away draws; that could be a strong clue.

Chelsea’s home draws have come in these games

29 Sep 2018 Chelsea v Liverpool D 1-1
20 Oct 2018 Chelsea v Manchester United D 2-2
11 Nov 2018 Chelsea v Everton D 0-0
02 Jan 2019 Chelsea v Southampton D 0-0

And what is interesting is that these are not just draws against other top six clubs but against a variety of teams, spread across the season.

18 Aug 2018 Cardiff City v Newcastle United D 0-0
22 Sep 2018 Crystal Palace v Newcastle United D 0-0
27 Oct 2018 Southampton v Newcastle United D 0-0
05 Dec 2018 Everton v Newcastle United D 1-1
29 Dec 2018 Watford v Newcastle United D 1-1

A propensity for 0-0 and 1-1 draws.

The psychology

Chelsea know they have to keep winning to ensure they get the craved for top four place to avoid another Europa League season, although like Arsenal they have a fall back of winning the Europa to gain entry to the Champions League next season.

Newcastle know that they just need to keep picking up points to ensure they don’t get relegated.   But they also know that the clubs below them are liable to keep on losing games.

Here’s the bottom of the league table.

Pos Club P W D L F A GD
Pts
15 Newcastle United 21 4 6 11 15 29 -14 18
16 Burnley 21 5 3 13 21 42 -21 18
17 Cardiff City 21 5 3 13 19 41 -22 18
18 Southampton 21 3 7 11 21 38 -17 16
19 Fulham 21 3 5 13 19 47 -28 14
20 Huddersfield Town 21 2 4 15 13 37 -24 10

As for injuries Chelsea and Newcastle are each shown with five players injured by Physioroom although they are still showing Fabregas as a Chelsea player, while in fact he has gone to Monaco.  Morata and Hudson Odoi are possibly recovered enough to play today.  Diame and Fernandez could be back for Newcastle.

This could well be a draw, which would look like a surprise if one didn’t check the home and away ratings.   In which case 1-1 seems the most obvious score.  Second choice would be a 2-1 win to Chelsea.

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