Everton v Arsenal, the predictions
After a poor run of form in January, Everton have picked up of late…
|02 Feb 2019||Everton v Wolverhampton W||L||1-3||Premier League|
|06 Feb 2019||Everton v Manchester City||L||0-2||Premier League|
|09 Feb 2019||Watford v Everton||L||1-0||Premier League|
|26 Feb 2019||Cardiff City v Everton||W||0-3||Premier League|
|03 Mar 2019||Everton v Liverpool||D||0-0||Premier League|
|09 Mar 2019||Newcastle United v Everton||L||3-2||Premier League|
|17 Mar 2019||Everton v Chelsea||W||2-0||Premier League|
|30 Mar 2019||West Ham United v Everton||W||0-2||Premier League|
Those three defeats in February made things look pretty awful at Goodison, but since then three wins, one defeat and one draw has improved the league standing with Everton now 10th, some 20 points behind Arsenal.
But for a game like this what makes for interesting reading is Everton’s home form against Arsenal’s away form.
Here is the home form table
|8||West Ham United||17||8||3||6||27||25||2||27|
Seven wins, four draws and five defeats for Everton with a goal difference of +2.
Now Arsenal’s away form…
For Arsenal to have a better away form than Everton’s home form, Arsenal would have to win their two away games “in hand” against the rest of the pack. But it is also interesting to note that if Arsenal did win these two away games they would be sixth in the away table – four points worse than Chelsea in fifth, but a major upgrade on the away form of last season.
But one thing to note is that Arsenal do score more goals away than Everton do at home (26 in 14 to Arsenal giving a rate of 1.86 goals a game. Everton have scored 23 in 16 giving a rate of 1.44 per game).
However when we compare Arsenal from the start of February against the details above for Everton we find something rather interesting…
|03 Feb 2019||Manchester City v Arsenal||L||3-1||Premier League|
|09 Feb 2019||Huddersfield T v Arsenal||W||1-2||Premier League|
|14 Feb 2019||FC BATE Borisov v Arsenal||L||1-0||Europa League|
|21 Feb 2019||Arsenal v FC BATE Borisov||W||3-0||Europa League|
|24 Feb 2019||Arsenal v Southampton||W||2-0||Premier League|
|27 Feb 2019||Arsenal v Bournemouth||W||5-1||Premier League|
|02 Mar 2019||Tottenham H v Arsenal||D||1-1||Premier League|
|07 Mar 2019||Rennes v Arsenal||L||3-1||Europa League|
|10 Mar 2019||Arsenal v Manchester Utd||W||2-0||Premier League|
|14 Mar 2019||Arsenal v Rennes||W||3-0||Europa League|
|01 Apr 2019||Arsenal v Newcastle Utd||W||2-0||Premier League|
Everton have played one more league game than Arsenal in the period but Arsenal have played an extra four Europa games.
Taking the league games only, Arsenal have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 1. Everton have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 4 – those four defeats coming against Wolverhampton, Manchester City, Watford and Newcastle.
On those statistics I’d say an Arsenal victory is likely, but this is an away game for Arsenal, and that makes me a lot less certain.