Everton v Arsenal, the predictions

 

After a poor run of form in January, Everton have picked up of late…

Date Game Res Score Competition
02 Feb 2019 Everton v Wolverhampton W L 1-3 Premier League
06 Feb 2019 Everton v Manchester City L 0-2 Premier League
09 Feb 2019 Watford v Everton L 1-0 Premier League
26 Feb 2019 Cardiff City v Everton W 0-3 Premier League
03 Mar 2019 Everton v Liverpool D 0-0 Premier League
09 Mar 2019 Newcastle United v Everton L 3-2 Premier League
17 Mar 2019 Everton v Chelsea W 2-0 Premier League
30 Mar 2019 West Ham United v Everton W 0-2 Premier League

Those three defeats in February made things look pretty awful at Goodison, but since then three wins, one defeat and one draw has improved the league standing with Everton now 10th, some 20 points behind Arsenal.

But for a game like this what makes for interesting reading is Everton’s home form against Arsenal’s away form.

Here is the home form table

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Manchester City 17 16 0 1 55 12 43 48
2 Liverpool 16 14 2 0 46 10 36 44
3 Arsenal 17 14 2 1 39 12 27 44
4 Chelsea 16 10 5 1 32 10 22 35
5 Manchester United 15 9 5 1 30 19 11 32
6 Tottenham Hotspur 15 10 1 4 27 13 14 31
7 Wolverhampton Wanderers 16 8 3 5 24 20 4 27
8 West Ham United 17 8 3 6 27 25 2 27
9 AFC Bournemouth 16 7 5 4 28 21 7 26
10 Watford 15 8 2 5 23 20 3 26
11 Everton 16 7 4 5 23 21 2 25

Seven wins, four draws and five defeats for Everton with a goal difference of +2.

Now Arsenal’s away form…

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Liverpool 16 10 5 1 26 9 17 35
2 Tottenham Hotspur 17 11 0 6 33 21 12 33
3 Manchester City 15 10 2 3 28 9 19 32
4 Manchester United 17 9 2 6 31 24 7 29
5 Chelsea 16 9 1 6 23 24 -1 28
6 Leicester City 16 6 3 7 21 24 -3 21
7 Crystal Palace 16 6 2 8 25 26 -1 20
8 Watford 17 5 5 7 24 27 -3 20
9 Wolverhampton Wanderers 16 5 5 6 16 19 -3 20
10 Arsenal 14 5 4 5 26 27 -1 19

For Arsenal to have a better away form than Everton’s home form, Arsenal would have to win their two away games “in hand” against the rest of the pack.  But it is also interesting to note that if Arsenal did win these two away games they would be sixth in the away table – four points worse than Chelsea in fifth, but a major upgrade on the away form of last season.

But one thing to note is that Arsenal do score more goals away than Everton do at home (26 in 14 to Arsenal giving a rate of 1.86 goals a game.   Everton have scored 23 in 16 giving a rate of 1.44 per game).

However when we compare Arsenal from the start of February against the details above for Everton we find something rather interesting…

Date Game Res Score Competition
03 Feb 2019 Manchester City v Arsenal L 3-1 Premier League
09 Feb 2019 Huddersfield T v Arsenal W 1-2 Premier League
14 Feb 2019 FC BATE Borisov v Arsenal L 1-0 Europa League
21 Feb 2019 Arsenal v FC BATE Borisov W 3-0 Europa League
24 Feb 2019 Arsenal v Southampton W 2-0 Premier League
27 Feb 2019 Arsenal v Bournemouth W 5-1 Premier League
02 Mar 2019 Tottenham H v Arsenal D 1-1 Premier League
07 Mar 2019 Rennes v Arsenal L 3-1 Europa League
10 Mar 2019 Arsenal v Manchester Utd W 2-0 Premier League
14 Mar 2019 Arsenal v Rennes W 3-0 Europa League
01 Apr 2019 Arsenal v Newcastle Utd W 2-0 Premier League

Everton have played one more league game than Arsenal in the period but Arsenal have played an extra four Europa games.

Taking the league games only, Arsenal have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 1.  Everton have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 4 – those four defeats coming against Wolverhampton, Manchester City, Watford and Newcastle.

On those statistics I’d say an Arsenal victory is likely, but this is an away game for Arsenal, and that makes me a lot less certain.

 

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