The home and away strategy

By Tony Attwood

Through 2017 and 2018 we experimented with the notion that by simply looking at the home and away form of the two teams involved in a Premier League game it was possible to get closer to accurate predictions than through other methods we have looked at.

The approach is very straightforward.  For example if one is looking at predicting the result of Arsenal v Tottenham one looks at how well Arsenal are doing at home, and how well Tottenham are doing at home.

Then to refine the prediction a little further one looks at recent results to see if the trend seen in the overall table is holding up in recent matches, or whether there has been a blip of late.

Of course the refinement can go on and on, looking at injuries for example, and in the end before you know it the match is upon us, played and the result is in.  So we are bearing in mind that this type of prediction is a hobby.

Let’s look at the data for the forthcoming Arsenal v Tottenham game…

Last season’s home and away results looked like this

2017/8 home

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Manchester City 19 16 2 1 61 14 47 50
2 Arsenal 19 15 2 2 54 20 34 47
3 Manchester United 19 15 2 2 38 9 29 47
4 Liverpool 19 12 7 0 45 10 35 43
5 Tottenham Hotspur 19 13 4 2 40 16 24 43
6 Chelsea 19 11 4 4 30 16 14 37
7 Everton 19 10 4 5 28 22 6 34
8 Brighton and Hove Albion 19 7 8 4 24 25 -1 29
9 Newcastle United 19 8 4 7 21 17 4 28
10 Leicester City 19 7 6 6 25 22 3 27
11 West Ham United 19 7 6 6 24 26 -2 27
12 Watford 19 7 6 6 27 31 -4 27
13 Crystal Palace 19 7 5 7 29 27 2 26
14 Burnley 19 7 5 7 16 17 -1 26
15 AFC Bournemouth 19 7 5 7 26 30 -4 26
16 Huddersfield Town 19 6 5 8 16 25 -9 23
17 Swansea City 19 6 3 10 17 24 -7 21
18 Stoke City 19 5 5 9 20 30 -10 20
19 Southampton 19 4 7 8 20 26 -6 19
20 West Bromwich Albion 19 3 9 7 21 29 -8 18

And now 2017/18 away

 

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Manchester City 19 16 2 1 45 13 32 50
2 Tottenham Hotspur 19 10 4 5 34 20 14 34
3 Manchester United 19 10 4 5 30 19 11 34
4 Chelsea 19 10 3 6 32 22 10 33
5 Liverpool 19 9 5 5 39 28 11 32
6 Burnley 19 7 7 5 20 22 -2 28
7 Leicester City 19 5 5 9 31 38 -7 20
8 AFC Bournemouth 19 4 6 9 19 31 -12 18
9 Crystal Palace 19 4 6 9 16 28 -12 18
10 Southampton 19 3 8 8 17 30 -13 17
11 Arsenal 19 4 4 11 20 31 -11 16
12 Newcastle United 19 4 4 11 18 30 -12 16
13 West Ham United 19 3 6 10 24 42 -18 15
14 Everton 19 3 6 10 16 36 -20 15
15 Watford 19 4 2 13 17 33 -16 14
16 Huddersfield Town 19 3 5 11 12 33 -21 14
17 West Bromwich Albion 19 3 4 12 10 27 -17 13
18 Stoke City 19 2 7 10 15 38 -23 13
19 Swansea City 19 2 6 11 11 32 -21 12
20 Brighton and Hove Albion 19 2 5 12 10 29 -19 11

 

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