Going to the 4th tier can get you better odds

The fourth tier can be interesting simply because far fewer people place bets on results in the lower divisions.

Here is the league table for home matches only – but don’t start assuming that this is how the away table will also look…

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Milton Keynes Dons 10 7 3 0 15 4 11 24
2 Newport County 10 7 2 1 20 16 4 23
3 Colchester United 10 7 1 2 22 7 15 22
4 Bury 10 6 3 1 24 8 16 21
5 Tranmere Rovers 10 6 3 1 13 4 9 21
6 Lincoln City 10 6 3 1 18 10 8 21
7 Crewe Alexandra 10 6 2 2 18 7 11 20
8 Crawley Town 10 6 2 2 21 14 7 20
9 Stevenage 10 6 2 2 14 9 5 20
10 Mansfield Town 9 5 3 1 14 5 9 18
11 Exeter City 10 5 2 3 18 12 6 17
12 Oldham Athletic 10 4 2 4 16 14 2 14
13 Northampton Town 10 3 5 2 12 11 1 14
14 Port Vale 10 4 2 4 13 14 -1 14
15 Grimsby Town 10 4 2 4 12 13 -1 14
16 Swindon Town 10 3 4 3 12 16 -4 13
17 Forest Green Rovers 10 2 6 2 9 8 1 12
18 Cambridge United 10 3 2 5 10 14 -4 11
19 Carlisle United 10 3 1 6 9 14 -5 10
20 Morecambe 10 3 1 6 9 14 -5 10
21 Notts County 10 2 4 4 11 18 -7 10
22 Yeovil Town 9 1 6 2 8 12 -4 9
23 Macclesfield Town 10 2 3 5 8 18 -10 9
24 Cheltenham Town 9 1 3 5 7 14 -7 6

And now for away games – you’ll notice a huge difference – Forest Green are 17th in home form but number 1 in away form!   This shows you just how valuable this sort of simple analysis can be.

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Forest Green Rovers 10 5 3 2 19 12 7 18
2 Lincoln City 9 5 2 2 16 7 9 17
3 Carlisle United 10 5 2 3 16 11 5 17
4 Milton Keynes Dons 10 4 4 2 15 9 6 16
5 Mansfield Town 10 2 8 0 13 9 4 14
6 Exeter City 10 3 5 2 11 9 2 14
7 Swindon Town 10 4 2 4 11 12 -1 14
8 Colchester United 10 3 4 3 11 12 -1 13
9 Yeovil Town 9 4 0 5 15 10 5 12
10 Oldham Athletic 10 2 6 2 10 7 3 12
11 Bury 10 3 3 4 14 13 1 12
12 Newport County 10 3 3 4 11 16 -5 12
13 Port Vale 10 3 2 5 7 9 -2 11
14 Stevenage 10 3 2 5 12 16 -4 11
15 Cheltenham Town 10 3 2 5 11 16 -5 11
16 Morecambe 10 3 2 5 10 18 -8 11
17 Tranmere Rovers 10 2 4 4 17 21 -4 10
18 Northampton Town 10 2 3 5 13 17 -4 9
19 Grimsby Town 10 2 2 6 7 14 -7 8
20 Cambridge United 10 2 2 6 9 20 -11 8
21 Crawley Town 9 2 0 7 6 16 -10 6
22 Notts County 10 1 3 6 11 23 -12 6
23 Crewe Alexandra 10 1 2 7 3 17 -14 5
24 Macclesfield Town 10 1 1 8 8 19 -11 4

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