Predicting tonight’s result: Everton v Newcastle
By Tony Attwood
This game which will take place today, on 5 December 2018, is selected as a way of exploring how our system of predictions works. The game is only a few hours away, so there will be an immediate chance to see how well or badly the process works.
A quick look at the league table suggests this should be a straightforward Everton victory:
|12||West Ham Utd||15||5||3||7||20||23||-3||18|
Everton have ten more points than Newcastle. But let’s check on the home and away form. Here is Everton at home
As we might expect a solid home performance, scoring almost two goals a game, and conceding just under one.
In terms of away form we need to look at the lower reaches of the table for Newcastle
Interestingly Everton are actually worse away from home than Newcastle – but there is one pointer here that suggests that this might not be quite as easy a game as we have imagined. Everton are winning 2-1 at home on average. But Newcastle are averaging around 1-1 away from home. That still edges the prediction towards Everton, but not by as much as we might have thought.
To give a final insight we might consider recent results:
Everton’s last home defeat was against West Ham – not a team renowned for ripping their way through defences away from home
|16 Sep 2018||Everton v West Ham United||L||1-3||Premier League|
|29 Sep 2018||Everton v Fulham||W||3-0||Premier League|
|02 Oct 2018||Everton v Southampton||L||3-4||League Cup|
|21 Oct 2018||Everton v Crystal Palace||W||2-0||Premier League|
|03 Nov 2018||Everton v Brighton and Hove Albion||W||3-1||Premier League|
|24 Nov 2018||Everton v Cardiff City||W||1-0||Premier League|
And if we look at the last couple of away games (to Chelsea and Liverpool) we find a 0-0 draw and a 1-0 defeat – that in a game in which they conceded a goal in about the 7th minute of added on time. At home however a very solid performance of late.
Is there anything in Newcastle’s record to convince us of an upset?
|22 Sep 2018||Crystal Palace v Newcastle U||D||0-0||Premier League|
|29 Sep 2018||Newcastle U v Leicester City||L||0-2||Premier League|
|06 Oct 2018||Manchester United v Newcastle||L||3-2||Premier League|
|20 Oct 2018||Newcastle United v Brighton||L||0-1||Premier League|
|27 Oct 2018||Southampton v Newcastle U||D||0-0||Premier League|
|03 Nov 2018||Newcastle United v Watford||W||1-0||Premier League|
|10 Nov 2018||Newcastle U v Bournemouth||W||2-1||Premier League|
|26 Nov 2018||Burnley v Newcastle United||W||1-2||Premier League|
|01 Dec 2018||Newcastle United v West Ham||L||0-3||Premier League|
Newcastle did have three successive wins against Watford, Bournemouth and Burnley, but only one was away from home – the only away success on this list, and the final game was the 0-3 home defeat to West Ham. To bet on Newcastle you’d have to be banking on a bounce back to that home defeat. I suspect we are safe with the 2-1 prediction.