Burnley v Brighton: the predictions

Burnley enter their home match with Brighton with the worst home record in the league:

17 Southampton 7 0 5 2 6 10 -4 5
18 Crystal Palace 7 1 2 4 4 8 -4 5
19 Huddersfield Town 8 1 2 5 3 10 -7 5
20 Burnley 7 1 1 5 8 15 -7 4

Just one win and one draw in seven games, scoring eight (one a game) and conceding 15 (two a game).  Effectively 1-2

Now Brighton does not have a much better away record

13 Crystal Palace 8 2 1 5 7 12 -5 7
14 Brighton and Hove Albion 8 2 1 5 7 13 -6 7
15 Everton 7 1 3 3 7 10 -3 6
16 Huddersfield Town 7 1 2 4 7 16 -9 5
17 Burnley 8 1 2 5 6 17 -11 5
18 Southampton 8 1 1 6 7 19 -12 4
19 Cardiff City 7 0 1 6 3 15 -12 1
20 Fulham 8 0 1 7 5 20 -15 1

Brighton have two wins one draw and five defeats with seven goals scored and 13 conceded away from home.  Effectively 1-2.    Both have negative goal differences: Brighton -6 to Burnley -7.

So on this basis both teams look as if they are going to be beaten 1-2.  But of course they can’t be.

Certainly it would be surprising if either team managed to score more than one goal in this game, so I would be looking for a 1-1 draw.

Whichever you look at it, Burnley’s recent record is awful…

20 Oct 2018 Manchester City v Burnley L 5-0
28 Oct 2018 Burnley v Chelsea L 0-4
03 Nov 2018 West Ham United v Burnley L 4-2
10 Nov 2018 Leicester City v Burnley D 0-0
26 Nov 2018 Burnley v Newcastle United L 1-2
01 Dec 2018 Crystal Palace v Burnley L 2-0
05 Dec 2018 Burnley v Liverpool L 1-3

Bur recently Brighton have been picking up…

03 Nov 2018 Everton v Brighton and Hove Albion L 3-1
10 Nov 2018 Cardiff City v Brighton and Hove Albion L 2-1
24 Nov 2018 Brighton and Hove Albion v Leicester City D 1-1
01 Dec 2018 Huddersfield Town v Brighton and Hove W 1-2
04 Dec 2018 Brighton and Hove Albion v Crystal Palace W 3-1

On this basis, if there is to be a winner it is likely to be Brighton, by 2-1.  Otherwise it looks like a 1-1 draw.

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