Tottenham Hotspur v Burnley: result predictions

Tottenham reached the knock out stages of the Champions League this week which is being celebrated as a great achievement by the club.   

That will undoubtedly cause a distraction in the New Year but for now this can be set aside as they return to league action with a home match against Burnley.

Here is their home form thus far.

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Liverpool 16 13 3 0 34 6 28 42
2 Manchester City 16 13 2 1 45 9 36 41
3 Tottenham Hotspur 16 12 0 4 30 16 14 36
4 Chelsea 16 10 4 2 33 13 20 34
5 Arsenal 16 10 4 2 35 20 15 34

Curiously Tottenham’s home form continues to be worse than their away form, and it is unusual indeed to see a team in the top four having lost 25% of their home matches.   Their goals conceded while not as many as Arsenal who are fifth in the home games table, is still high at one a game.

The cause of this is probably their uncertainty in terms of playing at Wembley because of the on-going delays to the completion of their new stadium, and the constant drip drip drip of stories about problems with sub-contractors employed directly by Tottenham themselves.  It is an approach that can save money but means when things go wrong there is no one to blame but themselves.

Burnley are of course a totally different case – having gained a position in the Europa League they then managed to let it slip through their fingers, and now instead of building on what was seen last season as an over achievement they are now sitting at the bottom end of the table.

Here is the foot of the table with both home and away games included

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
15 Newcastle United 16 3 4 9 13 22 -9 13
16 Crystal Palace 16 3 3 10 13 23 -10 12
17 Burnley 16 3 3 10 15 32 -17 12
18 Huddersfield Town 16 2 4 10 10 27 -17 10
19 Southampton 16 1 6 9 13 30 -17 9
20 Fulham 16 2 3 11 16 40 -24 9

This puts Burnley in the position of welcoming every point they can pick up.

In terms of away games only here is how it looks

16 Huddersfield Town 8 1 2 5 7 17 -10 5
17 Burnley 8 1 2 5 6 17 -11 5
18 Southampton 9 1 1 7 7 20 -13 4
19 Cardiff City 7 0 1 6 3 15 -12 1
20 Fulham 9 0 1 8 6 24 -18 1

Tottenham’s average home score is 2-1.  Burnley’s average away score is 1-2, which is a perfect match and suggests it will indeed be 2-1 to Tottenham.

Part of the impact on away teams of course is the fact that they are playing at Wembley – and for many players in lower ranked teams this will be their only time of playing at Wembley, so their managers have an easy job of motivating them – “it’s Wembley lads, go out and make your mark”.

That could be a motivating factor against Tottenham.   And there could be the Champions League.   Their draw with Barcelona meant that not only did they play a game mid-week which Burnley (not being in the Europa any more as noted) did not, but also they put everything possible into getting that unlikely draw.  

To come back to earth and play a team as near the bottom of the table as Burnley, at a ground where they have already lost four times, might just be the problem.

2-1 remains the obvious result but there is that caveat.

Coming back from a Champions League match Tottenham have had mixed results

18 Sep Internazionale v Tottenham H L 2-1 Champions League
22 Sep Brighton and Hove  v Tottenham H W 1-2 Premier League
03 Oct Tottenham Hotspur v Barcelona L 2-4 Champions League
06 Oct Tottenham Hotspur v Cardiff City W 1-0 Premier League
24 Oct PSV Eindhoven v Tottenham H D 2-2 Champions League
29 Oct Tottenham Hotspur v Man City L 0-1 Premier League
06 Nov Tottenham Hotspur v PSV W 2-1 Champions League
10 Nov Crystal Palace v Tottenham H W 0-1 Premier League
28 Nov Tottenham H v Internazionale W 1-0 Champions League
02 Dec Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur L 4-2 Premier League
11 Dec Barcelona v Tottenham Hotspur D 1-1 Champions League

In the first two matches they won their league game after a Champs result.  The third game they drew and then lost.  In the fourth they won both in the Champs and the Premier League.  Then they won in the Champions League and lost to Arsenal in the Premier League.    Three wins two defeats.

If Burnley have a chance of doing better than a 2-1 defeat it will be because of Tottenham’s reaction to the draw with Barcelona and their celebrations at getting through to the knock out stage.

 

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