Arsenal v Tottenham (League Cup 19 Dec). The predictions

League cup games can be harder to predict because of the way that clubs can on occasion put out weaker teams but in the case of Arsenal v Tottenham we probably will see very strong teams from both sides because of the intensity of the competition.

Here is Arsenal’s home form

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Manchester City 9 9 0 0 33 6 27 27
2 Liverpool 8 7 1 0 18 2 16 22
3 Chelsea 9 6 3 0 19 7 12 21
4 Arsenal 9 6 2 1 17 8 9 20
5 Everton 9 5 3 1 16 9 7 18

Tottenham this season are top of the away form table, although partly this is because of their propensity for playing more away games than home (after they predicted their stadium would open not in 2019 but in September 2018.

To adjust for this a final column is added showing the average points away from home so far this season.

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts Av
1 Tottenham Hots 10 8 0 2 19 10 9 24 2.4
2 Liverpool 9 7 2 0 19 5 14 23 2.5
3 Manchester City 8 5 2 1 15 4 11 17 2.1
4 Chelsea 8 5 1 2 16 7 9 16 2.0
5 Arsenal 8 4 2 2 20 15 5 14 1.75

Tottenham’s ranking is still very good at 2.4 points per game, second only to Liverpool.

Using this method of average points, Tottenham might expect to beat Arsenal in the league cup match with their 2.4 points per game away from home against Arsenal’s 2.2 points at home.

The goals tally is very close.  Tottenham have 19 goals away from home, conceding ten.   Arsenal have scored 17 at home conceding eight.   So the goal difference is equal.  It looks like the match could come down to who is coping best with the number of injuries.  Both sides have been suffering this season in this regard.

Tottenham are top of the injury league with eight men out at present while Arsenal are on six men unavailable.  So both are suffering there, and I suspect the managers will not only look at the skill of any younger players they want to promote but also their ability to cope mentally with such a high tension occasion.  We may also note that Tottenham will be given a much higher number of tickets than normal.

Tottenham will be keen to avoid the storm Arsenal produced in the league game between the two when Arsenal came back from 2-1 down to win 4-2.   I think a tighter match will happen this time with the game ending in normal time 1-1.   What happens in injury time could be down to who is kicking who and how many players are left on the pitch.

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