West Ham v Watford: the predictions

West Ham v Watford is one of those strange games that doesn’t always turn out as one might expect.

Here are the results since 1994 at West Ham’s ground…

08 Jan 1994 West Ham United v Watford W 2-1 FA Cup
11 Sep 1999 West Ham United v Watford W 1-0 Premier League
01 May 2004 West Ham United v Watford W 4-0 League Division 1
27 Nov 2004 West Ham United v Watford W 3-2 League Championship
27 Jan 2007 West Ham United v Watford L 0-1 FA Cup
10 Feb 2007 West Ham United v Watford L 0-1 Premier League
07 Mar 2012 West Ham United v Watford D 1-1 League Championship
20 Apr 2016 West Ham United v Watford W 3-1 Premier League
10 Sep 2016 West Ham United v Watford L 2-4 Premier League
As we can see, in the 1990s and early 2000s West Ham won four in a row.  Since then they have gone five with only one win.  Not what one might expect without looking up the record.
In terms of overall form the clubs this season have a very similar record…
Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Liverpool 17 14 3 0 37 7 30 45
2 Manchester City 17 14 2 1 48 10 38 44
3 Tottenham Hotspur 17 13 0 4 31 16 15 39
4 Chelsea 17 11 4 2 35 14 21 37
5 Arsenal 17 10 4 3 37 23 14 34
6 Manchester United 17 7 5 5 29 29 0 26
7 Wolverhampton Wanderers 17 7 4 6 19 19 0 25
8 Everton 17 6 6 5 24 22 2 24
9 West Ham United 17 7 3 7 25 25 0 24
10 Watford 17 7 3 7 23 25 -2 24

In fact the only difference between their overall form is that Watford have scored two goals fewer than West Ham.  It is a remarkable link between the two sides.

So what of West Ham at home

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Manchester City 9 9 0 0 33 6 27 27
2 Liverpool 8 7 1 0 18 2 16 22
3 Chelsea 9 6 3 0 19 7 12 21
4 Arsenal 9 6 2 1 17 8 9 20
5 Everton 9 5 3 1 16 9 7 18
6 Tottenham Hotspur 7 5 0 2 12 6 6 15
7 Manchester United 8 4 3 1 14 11 3 15
8 Watford 9 5 0 4 14 15 -1 15
9 Brighton and Hove Albion 8 4 2 2 13 10 3 14
10 Wolverhampton Wanderers 9 4 2 3 12 11 1 14
11 AFC Bournemouth 9 4 2 3 14 14 0 14
12 West Ham United 9 4 1 4 14 14 0 13

West Ham have four wins, one draw and four defeats, with goal difference of zero.

As for Watford who are away,  here is how their away form pans out so far

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Tottenham Hotspur 10 8 0 2 19 10 9 24
2 Liverpool 9 7 2 0 19 5 14 23
3 Manchester City 8 5 2 1 15 4 11 17
4 Chelsea 8 5 1 2 16 7 9 16
5 Arsenal 8 4 2 2 20 15 5 14
6 West Ham United 8 3 2 3 11 11 0 11
7 Wolverhampton Wanderers 8 3 2 3 7 8 -1 11
8 Leicester City 9 3 2 4 11 13 -2 11
9 Manchester United 9 3 2 4 15 18 -3 11
10 Newcastle United 8 2 4 2 7 7 0 10
11 Watford 8 2 3 3 9 10 -1 9
A slightly worse record emerges: two wins, three draws, three defeats, and a goal difference of -1.
Looking at the goals scored so far we might go for West Ham 2 Watford 1 – if it were not for that habit Watford have of doing ok away to West Ham.  A second bet could be to go for a draw however.
West Ham have certainly picked up after their very dodgy start with four wins in their last five…
24 Nov 2018 West Ham United v Manchester City L 0-4 Premier League
01 Dec 2018 Newcastle United v West Ham United W 0-3 Premier League
04 Dec 2018 West Ham United v Cardiff City W 3-1 Premier League
08 Dec 2018 West Ham United v Crystal Palace W 3-2 Premier League
15 Dec 2018 Fulham v West Ham United W 0-2 Premier League

However these games have all been against clubs that are not doing particularly well this season.  Yes they have scored 11 in the last four, but against teams with very dodgy defences.

Watford’s results of late have been patchy to say the least.  Here are their last 10

06 Oct 2018 Watford v AFC Bournemouth L 0-4 Premier League
20 Oct 2018 Wolverhampton Wanderers v Watford W 0-2 Premier League
27 Oct 2018 Watford v Huddersfield Town W 3-0 Premier League
03 Nov 2018 Newcastle United v Watford L 1-0 Premier League
10 Nov 2018 Southampton v Watford D 1-1 Premier League
24 Nov 2018 Watford v Liverpool L 0-3 Premier League
01 Dec 2018 Leicester City v Watford L 2-0 Premier League
04 Dec 2018 Watford v Manchester City L 1-2 Premier League
10 Dec 2018 Everton v Watford D 2-2 Premier League
15 Dec 2018 Watford v Cardiff City W 3-2 Premier League

Seven games with just one win – that recent result against Watford.  And their two wins before that were against teams also in difficulty at the time – Wolverhampton and Huddersfield.

Despite the draw against Everton and win over Cardiff, it is hard to see Watford getting anything out of this game unless lady luck really turns to smile on them.

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