Arsenal v Burnley: the predictions

Arsenal currently possess the fourth best home record in the League

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Manchester City 9 9 0 0 33 6 27 27
2 Liverpool 8 7 1 0 18 2 16 22
3 Chelsea 9 6 3 0 19 7 12 21
4 Arsenal 9 6 2 1 17 8 9 20

Six wins, two draws and one defeat – and that one defeat right at the start of the season.

Burnley away however is a totally different matter

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Tottenham Hotspur 10 8 0 2 19 10 9 24
2 Liverpool 9 7 2 0 19 5 14 23
3 Manchester City 8 5 2 1 15 4 11 17
4 Chelsea 8 5 1 2 16 7 9 16
5 Arsenal 8 4 2 2 20 15 5 14
6 West Ham United 8 3 2 3 11 11 0 11
7 Wolverhampton Wanderers 8 3 2 3 7 8 -1 11
8 Leicester City 9 3 2 4 11 13 -2 11
9 Manchester United 9 3 2 4 15 18 -3 11
10 Newcastle United 8 2 4 2 7 7 0 10
11 Watford 8 2 3 3 9 10 -1 9
12 AFC Bournemouth 8 3 0 5 11 14 -3 9
13 Crystal Palace 9 2 1 6 9 15 -6 7
14 Brighton and Hove Albion 9 2 1 6 7 14 -7 7
15 Everton 8 1 3 4 8 13 -5 6
16 Huddersfield Town 8 1 2 5 7 17 -10 5
17 Burnley 9 1 2 6 6 18 -12 5

One win in nine, two draws and six defeats.  Not exactly setting the place alight.

Burnley’s away win came right back in September – against also low flying Cardiff.  Here are their away games since then…

30 Sep 2018 Cardiff City v Burnley W 1-2 Premier League
20 Oct 2018 Manchester City v Burnley L 5-0 Premier League
03 Nov 2018 West Ham United v Burnley L 4-2 Premier League
10 Nov 2018 Leicester City v Burnley D 0-0 Premier League
01 Dec 2018 Crystal Palace v Burnley L 2-0 Premier League
15 Dec 2018 Tottenham Hotspur v Burnley L 1-0 Premier League

They did however hold Tottenham to just one goal in their last game – but against this Burnley have not scored in their last three away games, and only scored two in their last five and six away goals all season in nine away games.

Arsenal on the other hand, having had 22 games without defeat have now suffered two in a row.   They will be anxious to recover the home fans’ support after losing to Tottenham in the league cup in midweek, and many is the time when we have seen such anxiety become the cause of a downfall.

But Arsenal have scored 17 goals in nine games at home, very much on a par with Liverpool and Chelsea, although admittedly a distance behind the home performance of Manchester City.

Burnley will undoubtedly put in an 11 man defensive display and Arsenal’s best chance is to get an early goal, to force Burnley to move forwards.  But early goals is what Arsenal are not good at this season, which suggests that this could be a difficult affair, possibly ending goalless (which would be a triumph for Burnley) or just 1-0 to the Arsenal, with the goal coming near the end.

On overall form, without taking nerves into account this should end 2-0 to Arsenal – possibly more if their forward line go on the rampage in the last 20 minutes, but much depends on when that first goal occurs.   It is going to be teious with a lot of timewasting from the off by Burnley as they seek to get a point at any cost.  Arsenal need to start scoring first half goals.

 

 

One comment

  • Menace

    The most obvious prediction is that the official is no friend to Arsenal. The time wasting will not be penalised until the final stages of the match, that is if it is penalised at all.

    The selective blindness of the PGMOL officials is simply being accepted as part of the English game and despite some TV comment continues unabated in almost every match.

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