Brighton v Arsenal match predictions

Brighton have been erratic in the league and that is their defining characteristic this season.

From 25 August to 29 September they played six games – five in the league and once in the league cup (against Southampton).   They lost four and drew two.

Then starting on 5 October they won three in a row, two at home and one away.   Unlike the earlier games which had 22 goals in six games (3.7 goals a game), these three winning games contained just three goals (1.0 goals per game, obviously).

Next came two defeats away from home in the League, followed by a draw and two wins, and most recently three defeats.

These last three defeats on 8th, 16th and 22nd of December are interesting.  All three are in the Premier League:

Date Game Res Score
08 Dec Burnley v Brighton and Hove L 1-0
16 Dec Brighton and Hove  v Chelsea L 1-2
22 Dec Bournemouth v Brighton and Hove L 2-0

One goal to Brighton in three games (against Chelsea) and defeats to Burnley (!!!) and Bournemouth.  Maybe they don’t like teams that begin with B.

Of course Arsenal’s most recent adventures do not make particularly wonderful reading

Date Game Res Score Competition
16 Dec 2018 Southampton v Arsenal L 3-2 Premier League
19 Dec 2018 Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur L 0-2 League Cup
22 Dec 2018 Arsenal v Burnley W 3-1 Premier League

And Last season Arsenal lost away to Brighton at the end of a very depressing run of four games

22 Feb 2018 Arsenal v Östersunds FK L 1-2 Europa League
25 Feb 2018 Arsenal v Manchester City L 0-3 League Cup
01 Mar 2018 Arsenal v Manchester City L 0-3 Premier League
04 Mar 2018 Brighton and Hove  v Arsenal L 2-1 Premier League

But what of the home and away figures overall in relation to  the two teams…

Brighton are mid-table when it comes to home performances

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Manchester City 10 9 0 1 35 9 26 27
2 Arsenal 10 7 2 1 20 9 11 23
3 Liverpool 8 7 1 0 18 2 16 22
4 Chelsea 10 6 3 1 19 8 11 21
5 Everton 10 5 3 2 18 15 3 18
6 AFC Bournemouth 10 5 2 3 16 14 2 17
7 Tottenham Hotspur 7 5 0 2 12 6 6 15
8 Manchester United 8 4 3 1 14 11 3 15
9 Watford 9 5 0 4 14 15 -1 15
10 Brighton and Hove Albion 8 4 2 2 13 10 3 14

and although not relevant to this game Arsenal are second in this chart, although Liverpool hae two home games in hand and Tottenham, who are seriously trying to avoid playing at Wembley have three.

Away from home Arsenal are much stronger than they were last season, when the away form was their undoing.

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Tottenham Hotspur 11 9 0 2 25 12 13 27
2 Liverpool 10 8 2 0 21 5 16 26
3 Manchester City 8 5 2 1 15 4 11 17
4 Chelsea 8 5 1 2 16 7 9 16
5 Arsenal 8 4 2 2 20 15 5 14
6 Manchester United 10 4 2 4 20 19 1 14
7 Leicester City 10 4 2 4 12 13 -1 14

Four wins in the first eight away games for Arsenal is equal to their total for the whole of last season.

We can also see that Arsenal have a 20 to 15 goal tally away from home whereas Brighton are on 13 to 10 at home.  This suggests that Arsenal will go up against Brighton – and their division of goals between first and second half is very much stacked in favour of the second half.

What’s more there is Aubameyang – a top scorer now very much in form.  If we look for the top 20 scorers in the division right at the top we have Aubameyang with 20 goals, and the fastest scoring rate at 116 minutes per goal.  He’s knocked in 12 goals and just to round it off has 3 assists.

Brighton’s top may is Glenn Murray with 8 goals and no assists, coming in with a goal every 142 minutes.

Also in the top 20 is Alexandre Lacazette with 6 goals and 4 assists.

This looks to me like an Arsenal win.   Brighton do score at home so might get the one, but Arsenal are averaging 2.5 league goals per game away from home so I suspect it will be 1-2 to Arsenal.

 

One comment

  • Samuel Akinsola Adebosin

    Merry Christmas to all Untolders and a prosperous New Year of 2019 in advance to us all in Jesus Christ Name. Amen!

    On the Arsenal match away to Brighton in the PL tomorrow, I think the Seagulls will be counting on their Boxing Day home support in their excitement and exuberance on the festive occasion push Arsenal mentally in the game to try to overpower them in the match. But the Gunners will not succumb to such a cheap home support driving on excitement and exuberance support. But rather than to see themselves succumb to any initiated home support driving on excitement and exuberance on show in support of the Seagulls team against the Gunners in the game using it as a weapon tool to get a result in the match, but the Arsenal team on the day for the match who has the superiority edge in game playing capacity and win it, the capacity that’s far far above that which Brighton have in place to offer in the game, will make Arsenal superiority in game playing to tell heavily on Brighton in the game, to thus see Arsenal seeing them off from the match with a collateral 0-4 home defeat suffered to the Seagulls by the Gunners irrespective of whether Anthony Taylor the Pgmo centre referee for the match look the other way round or not whenever the Seagulls get physically overbearing in the game against the Gunners during the match but deliberately allowed to continue by the match officiating officials embolden the Seagulls to continue flapping their wings to the Gunners faces with unlimited impunity. But the Gunners who went to the Amex Stadium taking with them each their gunpowder loaded rifles will fire just one gunpowder gun shot to the mix of the converging Seagulls in their flights on the surface of the field sees 4 seagulls downed. Hmmm. Oh dear me, poor Seagulls.

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