Brighton v Arsenal match predictions
Brighton have been erratic in the league and that is their defining characteristic this season.
From 25 August to 29 September they played six games – five in the league and once in the league cup (against Southampton). They lost four and drew two.
Then starting on 5 October they won three in a row, two at home and one away. Unlike the earlier games which had 22 goals in six games (3.7 goals a game), these three winning games contained just three goals (1.0 goals per game, obviously).
Next came two defeats away from home in the League, followed by a draw and two wins, and most recently three defeats.
These last three defeats on 8th, 16th and 22nd of December are interesting. All three are in the Premier League:
|08 Dec||Burnley v Brighton and Hove||L||1-0|
|16 Dec||Brighton and Hove v Chelsea||L||1-2|
|22 Dec||Bournemouth v Brighton and Hove||L||2-0|
One goal to Brighton in three games (against Chelsea) and defeats to Burnley (!!!) and Bournemouth. Maybe they don’t like teams that begin with B.
Of course Arsenal’s most recent adventures do not make particularly wonderful reading
|16 Dec 2018||Southampton v Arsenal||L||3-2||Premier League|
|19 Dec 2018||Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur||L||0-2||League Cup|
|22 Dec 2018||Arsenal v Burnley||W||3-1||Premier League|
And Last season Arsenal lost away to Brighton at the end of a very depressing run of four games
|22 Feb 2018||Arsenal v Östersunds FK||L||1-2||Europa League|
|25 Feb 2018||Arsenal v Manchester City||L||0-3||League Cup|
|01 Mar 2018||Arsenal v Manchester City||L||0-3||Premier League|
|04 Mar 2018||Brighton and Hove v Arsenal||L||2-1||Premier League|
But what of the home and away figures overall in relation to the two teams…
Brighton are mid-table when it comes to home performances
|10||Brighton and Hove Albion||8||4||2||2||13||10||3||14|
and although not relevant to this game Arsenal are second in this chart, although Liverpool hae two home games in hand and Tottenham, who are seriously trying to avoid playing at Wembley have three.
Away from home Arsenal are much stronger than they were last season, when the away form was their undoing.
Four wins in the first eight away games for Arsenal is equal to their total for the whole of last season.
We can also see that Arsenal have a 20 to 15 goal tally away from home whereas Brighton are on 13 to 10 at home. This suggests that Arsenal will go up against Brighton – and their division of goals between first and second half is very much stacked in favour of the second half.
What’s more there is Aubameyang – a top scorer now very much in form. If we look for the top 20 scorers in the division right at the top we have Aubameyang with 20 goals, and the fastest scoring rate at 116 minutes per goal. He’s knocked in 12 goals and just to round it off has 3 assists.
Brighton’s top may is Glenn Murray with 8 goals and no assists, coming in with a goal every 142 minutes.
Also in the top 20 is Alexandre Lacazette with 6 goals and 4 assists.
This looks to me like an Arsenal win. Brighton do score at home so might get the one, but Arsenal are averaging 2.5 league goals per game away from home so I suspect it will be 1-2 to Arsenal.