Burnley v Everton match predictions

For Burnley’s manager to blame his side’s defeat to Arsenal on the fact that referees favour the bigger clubs and won’t give his team penalties may have convinced some of the journalists that his team were hard done by, but doesn’t really explain the recent run of results…

Date Game Res Score Competition
20 Oct 2018 Manchester City v Burnley L 5-0 Premier League
28 Oct 2018 Burnley v Chelsea L 0-4 Premier League
03 Nov 2018 West Ham United v Burnley L 4-2 Premier League
10 Nov 2018 Leicester City v Burnley D 0-0 Premier League
26 Nov 2018 Burnley v Newcastle United L 1-2 Premier League
01 Dec 2018 Crystal Palace v Burnley L 2-0 Premier League
05 Dec 2018 Burnley v Liverpool L 1-3 Premier League
08 Dec 2018 Burnley v Brighton and Hove Albion W 1-0 Premier League
15 Dec 2018 Tottenham Hotspur v Burnley L 1-0 Premier League
22 Dec 2018 Arsenal v Burnley L 3-1 Premier League

Eight defeats one draw and one victory might be excused by having fixtures against Liverpool, Tottenham and Arsenal, in the last four, and Man City and Chelsea at the start of the run, but still the club has also been losing to Newcastle, Palace and Brighton.

Everton’s run across the same period shows the same gulf between the top clubs and those lower down the league…

Date Game Res Score Competition
03 Nov 2018 Everton v Brighton and Hove Albion W 3-1 Premier League
11 Nov 2018 Chelsea v Everton D 0-0 Premier League
24 Nov 2018 Everton v Cardiff City W 1-0 Premier League
02 Dec 2018 Liverpool v Everton L 1-0 Premier League
05 Dec 2018 Everton v Newcastle United D 1-1 Premier League
10 Dec 2018 Everton v Watford D 2-2 Premier League
15 Dec 2018 Manchester City v Everton L 3-1 Premier League
23 Dec 2018 Everton v Tottenham Hotspur L 2-6 Premier League

And here we notice that although they are losing to the clubs at the top of the table, they are only managing to draw with Newcastle and Watford.  The two wins have come against Brighton and Cardiff.

Burnley’s league results at home have not been reassuring

Pos Club P W D L F A GD Pts
16 Crystal Palace 8 2 2 4 5 8 -3 8
17 Fulham 8 2 2 4 10 18 -8 8
18 Burnley 8 2 1 5 9 15 -6 7
19 Newcastle United 10 2 1 7 7 15 -8 7
20 Huddersfield Town 10 1 2 7 4 14 -10 5

Two wins, one draw and five defeats with just nine goals scored in eight games, is not the home form of a team surviving in the top tier.

But they might take some hope from the fact that Everton away have an equally miserable position

Pos Club P W D L F A GD Pts
15 Southampton 10 2 1 7 10 21 -11 7
16 Everton 8 1 3 4 8 13 -5 6
17 Huddersfield Town 8 1 2 5 7 17 -10 5
18 Burnley 10 1 2 7 7 21 -14 5
19 Fulham 10 0 2 8 6 24 -18 2
20 Cardiff City 8 0 1 7 5 18 -13 1

Eight away games for Everton have given one win, three draws and four defeats, with eight scored and 13 conceded.

To combine those goals it is 5-9 at home for Burnley and 8-13 away for Everton.

Pulling it all together a draw looks the likely outcome and the chances of a goal fest are low.  Maybe the classic 1-1 is the most likely result.

The two clubs have met just eight times in the Premier League before this match, and it is four wins each so far, with not a PL draw between them.  That again suggests it might be time for one.   Burnley have actually had the better of things in the last four games, winning three and losing one, but when the main thrust of a manager’s post match commentary is the referee, that suggests to me, he’s running out of excuses.  It might be true, but it is not the best thing to say.  What motivation does that give to the players, apart from saying, you’ve got no chance, the referee is against you?

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