Brighton v Burnley: the predictions

Saturday 29 December

Brighton v Everton
Referee: Andy Madley
Assistants: Simon Long, Mick McDonough
Fourth official: Andre Marriner

Brighton have a decent enough home record, and can fight back at home as was shown in their game against Arsenal

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Manchester City 10 9 0 1 35 9 26 27
2 Liverpool 9 8 1 0 22 2 20 25
3 Arsenal 10 7 2 1 20 9 11 23
4 Chelsea 10 6 3 1 19 8 11 21
5 Tottenham Hotspur 8 6 0 2 17 6 11 18
6 Manchester United 9 5 3 1 17 12 5 18
7 Everton 10 5 3 2 18 15 3 18
8 AFC Bournemouth 10 5 2 3 16 14 2 17
9 Brighton and Hove Albion 9 4 3 2 14 11 3 15

Everton however are struggling to show that they are anything but a middle ranking team when it comes to away form… two wins, three draws and four defeats – the exact reverse of the Brighton results at home.

11 Newcastle United 9 2 4 3 7 11 -4 10
12 Crystal Palace 10 3 1 6 12 17 -5 10
13 Everton 9 2 3 4 13 14 -1 9
14 AFC Bournemouth 9 3 0 6 11 19 -8 9
15 Brighton and Hove Albion 10 2 1 7 7 16 -9 7
16 Southampton 10 2 1 7 10 21 -11 7
17 Huddersfield Town 9 1 2 6 8 20 -12 5
18 Burnley 10 1 2 7 7 21 -14 5
19 Cardiff City 9 0 2 7 5 18 -13 2
20 Fulham 10 0 2 8 6 24 -18 2

The goals however are fairly similar.  Brighton at home have 14 for and 11 against, while Everton away have 13 scored and 14 against.   All this suggests Brighton might just edge it, but if so only by one go.

Here are Brighton’s recent games at home in the Premier League

27 Oct 2018 Brighton and Hove Albion v Wolverhampton W 1-0
24 Nov 2018 Brighton and Hove Albion v Leicester City D 1-1
04 Dec 2018 Brighton and Hove Albion v Crystal Palace W 3-1
16 Dec 2018 Brighton and Hove Albion v Chelsea L 1-2
26 Dec 2018 Brighton and Hove Albion v Arsenal D 1-1

That is a good run, with just one defeat to Chelsea thus far.  Everton’s last five in the league look like this

28 Oct 2018 Manchester United v Everton L 2-1
11 Nov 2018 Chelsea v Everton D 0-0
02 Dec 2018 Liverpool v Everton L 1-0
15 Dec 2018 Manchester City v Everton L 3-1
26 Dec 2018 Burnley v Everton W 1-5

Yes it was a fine win against Burnley but after a very poor run, and I can’t see Brighton giving up the ghost as Burnley did.   The stupidity of the Burnley manager coming out and saying that their team were always discriminated against by referees is revealed here – the team believe they can’t win because the manager has as good as said it.  What on earth did he expect?

So I take that as an oddity, and the result looks like a Brighton win to me.  The only chance of anything else by way of a result is a 1-1 draw.

Matchweek 20 the full list

Saturday 29 December

Brighton v Everton
Referee: Andy Madley
Assistants: Simon Long, Mick McDonough
Fourth official: Andre Marriner

Fulham v Huddersfield Town
Referee: Kevin Friend
Assistants: Matthew Wilkes, Andy Garratt
Fourth official: Chris Kavanagh

Leicester City v Cardiff City
Referee: Simon Hooper
Assistants: Richard West, Derek Eaton
Fourth official: Mike Dean

Tottenham Hotspur v Wolves
Referee: Stuart Attwell
Assistants: Stephen Child, Neil Davies
Fourth official: Lee Probert

Watford v Newcastle United
Referee: Roger East
Assistants: Harry Lennard, Simon Beck
Fourth official: Paul Tierney

17:30 Liverpool v Arsenal
Referee: Michael Oliver
Assistants: Stuart Burt, Simon Bennett
Fourth official: Jonathan Moss

Sunday 30 December

12:00 Crystal Palace v Chelsea
Referee: Craig Pawson
Assistants: Ian Hussin, Eddie Smart
Fourth official: Andre Marriner

14:15 Burnley v West Ham United
Referee: David Coote
Assistants: Peter Kirkup, Daniel Cook
Fourth official: Martin Atkinson

14:15 Southampton v Man City
Referee: Paul Tierney
Assistants: Constantine Hatzidakis, Scott Ledger
Fourth official: Lee Probert

16:30 Man Utd v AFC Bournemouth
Referee: Lee Mason
Assistants: Marc Perry, Adrian Holmes
Fourth official: Mike Dean

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