Southampton v Manchester City: the predictions

Starting as usual with our look at the home and away form of the two clubs, Southampton have only won one game at home

Club P W D L F A GD Pts
16 Fulham 9 2 3 4 11 19 -8 9
17 Southampton 9 1 5 3 10 14 -4 8
18 Newcastle United 10 2 1 7 7 15 -8 7
19 Burnley 9 2 1 6 10 20 -10 7
20 Huddersfield Town 10 1 2 7 4 14 -10 5

However that was just recently and it was against Arsenal.

Manchester City on the other hand we might expect to have an excellent away form and yet…

Club P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Tottenham Hotspur 11 9 0 2 25 12 13 27
2 Liverpool 10 8 2 0 21 5 16 26
3 Chelsea 9 6 1 2 18 8 10 19
4 Manchester City 9 5 2 2 16 6 10 17
5 Arsenal 9 4 3 2 21 16 5 15

In fact Manchester City’s away form is only slightly better than Arsenal’s this season, and yet last season Arsenal had a terrible away form, that was the prime cause of them not qualifying for the Champions League.

However, Manchester City have only conceded six goals away from home while Southampton have conceded over twice as many at home.  That would seem to indicate that this will be the moment that Manchester City’s wobble will be over.

Southampton have had two wins of late in the Premier League

24 Nov 2018 Fulham v Southampton L 3-2
01 Dec 2018 Southampton v Manchester United D 2-2
05 Dec 2018 Tottenham Hotspur v Southampton L 3-1
08 Dec 2018 Cardiff City v Southampton L 1-0
16 Dec 2018 Southampton v Arsenal W 3-2
22 Dec 2018 Huddersfield Town v Southampton W 1-3
27 Dec 2018 Southampton v West Ham United L 1-2

With that win over Arsenal and then against struggling Huddersfield it is possible that the club thought they were on the way, but a home defeat to West Ham put a dent in that.

December has not been the best of months for Manchester City however, at least when it comes to the League:

01 Dec 2018 Manchester City v AFC Bournemouth W 3-1 Premier League
04 Dec 2018 Watford v Manchester City W 1-2 Premier League
08 Dec 2018 Chelsea v Manchester City L 2-0 Premier League
15 Dec 2018 Manchester City v Everton W 3-1 Premier League
22 Dec 2018 Manchester City v Crystal Palace L 2-3 Premier League
26 Dec 2018 Leicester City v Manchester City L 2-1 Premier League

Three defeats in the league all season and they have all come in the last four games.  What is more in the last four games Manchester City have conceded eight goals.  That hardly seems many but that is over half of all the league goals they have conceded in 19 games.  It really has been an implosion.

But can Southampton make the most of this?

Southampton has scored 20 and let in 35 all season so far.  Now 35 goals conceded in 19 games is a little bit on the high side – only Cardiff, Burnley and Fulham have done worse.  As for goals scored, despite their recent woes Manchester City are the top scoring team with 51 in 1 games making 2.68 goals per game.

The last time Southampton beat Manchester City was on 1 May 2016 – the result was 4-2.  Since then there has been one draw on Man City’s own ground, and then four straight City victories.  The last on 4 November was a home win for Man City by six goals to one.   Could Southampton really reverse that?

The City bad run will finish sometime, and I suspect that finish will come with another Man City win in this game, to get them rolling along once more.  They might also do some serious buying in the transfer window to expand their squad, which in terms of the 25 is one of the smallest in the league.

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