Arsenal v Fulham: the predictions

Arsenal’s problems last season were not with their home form, where they were by and large terrific, but away.   And this season, although the away form has been better overall, the home form has held up.

Here is the home form league table…

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Liverpool 10 9 1 0 27 3 24 28
2 Manchester City 10 9 0 1 35 9 26 27
3 Arsenal 10 7 2 1 20 9 11 23
4 Chelsea 10 6 3 1 19 8 11 21
5 Tottenham Hotspur 9 6 0 3 18 9 9 18

Just one defeat at home, and that at the very start of the season when the new manager was still getting used to his team and the new arrivals.   Arsenal are not scoring at home in the way that Liverpool and Manchester City can, but they are knocking in an average of two goals a game – better than everyone in the league except the top two in the table above.

Only three teams have a home defence tighter than Arsenal – Chelsea and Liverpool as shown above – and surprisingly Crystal Palace who have scored five and let in eight at home.  Not a particular goal fest at Selhurst.  I wonder what the season ticket holders make of it all.

Fulham away are a different kettle of fish…

16 Southampton 10 2 1 7 10 21 -11 7
17 Cardiff City 10 1 2 7 6 18 -12 5
18 Huddersfield Town 10 1 2 7 8 21 -13 5
19 Burnley 10 1 2 7 7 21 -14 5
20 Fulham 10 0 2 8 6 24 -18 2

No wins, two draws and eight defeats, scored six and conceded 24.  So under one goal a game scored and 2.4 conceded per away game – the lack of wins is not surprising.

Arsenal in December have not been the team that went 22 games undefeated earlier, and they have an urgent need to regain their confidence.   The return of injured defenders might help, but above all they will know that after the Liverpool defeat they need to keep the fans onside.

The table below shows league games only…

Date Game Res Score
02 Dec 2018 Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur W 4-2
05 Dec 2018 Manchester United v Arsenal D 2-2
08 Dec 2018 Arsenal v Huddersfield Town W 1-0
16 Dec 2018 Southampton v Arsenal L 3-2
22 Dec 2018 Arsenal v Burnley W 3-1
26 Dec 2018 Brighton and Hove Albion v Arsenal D 1-1
29 Dec 2018 Liverpool v Arsenal L 5-1

Three wins, two draws and two defeats is not of the best, but in this match Arsenal are facing a side in real trouble… although there are signs of life…

02 Dec 2018 Chelsea v Fulham L 2-0
05 Dec 2018 Fulham v Leicester City D 1-1
08 Dec 2018 Manchester United v Fulham L 4-1
15 Dec 2018 Fulham v West Ham United L 0-2
22 Dec 2018 Newcastle United v Fulham D 0-0
26 Dec 2018 Fulham v Wolverhampton W D 1-1
29 Dec 2018 Fulham v Huddersfield Town W 1-0

The two draws helped steady the ship and then came the very welcome win against Huddersfield.  But Huddersfield are in as much trouble as Fulham, and I am not sure there is enough of a revitalisation for the club to hold Arsenal.

Overall Arsenal have scored 42 to Fulham’s 18 in 20 games which makes me think that even an Arsenal still shaken from the defeat at Liverpool should make it through 2-1 at the very least.

 

 

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