Chelsea v Southampton: the predictions

It is perhaps interesting to note that Chelsea have a home record this season similar to the much criticised Manchester United and worse than Arsenal, on whom a lot of opprobrium has been placed of late.  Here is the league table showing home games only…

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Liverpool 10 9 1 0 27 3 24 28
2 Manchester City 10 9 0 1 35 9 26 27
3 Arsenal 10 7 2 1 20 9 11 23
4 Chelsea 10 6 3 1 19 8 11 21
5 Manchester United 10 6 3 1 21 13 8 21

Six wins, three draws and just one defeat of course is not bad but as the results of the top two in the table show, not enough to be challenging for a title.  And Chelsea have the lowest number of goals scored out of the top five at home.

Of course this hardly gives them too much to worry about in terms of Southampton’s away form…

13 Everton 10 2 3 5 13 15 -2 9
14 AFC Bournemouth 10 3 0 7 12 23 -11 9
15 Brighton and Hove Albion 10 2 1 7 7 16 -9 7
16 Southampton 10 2 1 7 10 21 -11 7
17 Cardiff City 10 1 2 7 6 18 -12 5
18 Huddersfield Town 10 1 2 7 8 21 -13 5
19 Burnley 10 1 2 7 7 21 -14 5
20 Fulham 10 0 2 8 6 24 -18 2

Just two wins in ten, averaging one goal a game scored and two conceded.

Chelsea in the league in December doesn’t reveal anything to worry about either – although those two defeats were both against clubs that we would not expect to see beating Chelsea – and one was at home and one away.  There is a weakness in there somewhere.

02 Dec 2018 Chelsea v Fulham W 2-0
05 Dec 2018 Wolverhampton Wanderers v Chelsea L 2-1
08 Dec 2018 Chelsea v Manchester City W 2-0
16 Dec 2018 Brighton and Hove Albion v Chelsea W 1-2
22 Dec 2018 Chelsea v Leicester City L 0-1
26 Dec 2018 Watford v Chelsea W 1-2
30 Dec 2018 Crystal Palace v Chelsea W 0-1

Perhaps the other thing to notice is that Chelsea are not knocking in the goals at fullest speed.  One game without a goal, and the rest are games with one and two goals scored.

Southampton in December have only played league games (Chelsea also had League Cup, Europa League and even a Trophy match), so in theory have less strain on the squad.

01 Dec 2018 Southampton v Manchester United D 2-2
05 Dec 2018 Tottenham Hotspur v Southampton L 3-1
08 Dec 2018 Cardiff City v Southampton L 1-0
16 Dec 2018 Southampton v Arsenal W 3-2
22 Dec 2018 Huddersfield Town v Southampton W 1-3
27 Dec 2018 Southampton v West Ham United L 1-2
30 Dec 2018 Southampton v Manchester City L 1-3

Southampton’s wins against Arsenal who have been running into trouble of late and Huddersfield who are deeper in the mire than Southampton both saw the club scoring three goals, and in only one match above did they fail to score.

Chelsea however are only conceding one at most, in recent games, so the best Southampton could hope for is a goalless draw, maybe just a 1-1, but otherwise it looks like a 2-0 win to Chelsea.

 

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