Everton v Bournemouth: the spending, predictions, psychology, injuries

Everton are currently 11th in the Football League, and yet they are the 5th top spending club since 2012/13 according to Transfer Market’s tables

Club Expenditure Men in Income Men out Balance
1 164 163
2 248 236
3 129 134
4 138 140
5 111 120
6 135 128

They are in fact one of the teams who have spent and spent, but to no real gain.

At home they are the 9th best performing team in the league, and yet actually below Bournemouth who are a fraction of Everton’s size and have a fraction of their money.

What’s more if Everton are having to pay for their new stadium, that is going to bring a period of privation and they need to be over-achieving now not under-achieving in order to get through that period.

Here’s the home form…

Home games only

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Manchester City 11 10 0 1 37 10 27 30
2 Liverpool 10 9 1 0 27 3 24 28
3 Arsenal 11 8 2 1 24 10 14 26
4 Chelsea 12 7 4 1 21 9 12 25
5 Manchester United 10 6 3 1 21 13 8 21
6 Tottenham Hotspur 9 6 0 3 18 9 9 18
7 Brighton and Hove Albion 11 5 3 3 15 12 3 18
8 AFC Bournemouth 11 5 3 3 19 17 2 18
9 Everton 11 5 3 3 18 16 2 18

Five wins, three draws and three defeats.

But if there is a salvation here it is that Bournemouth away are as poor as Everton away.

Away games only

14 Everton 10 2 3 5 13 15 -2 9
15 AFC Bournemouth 10 3 0 7 12 23 -11 9
16 Brighton and Hove Albion 11 2 2 7 9 18 -9 8
17 Burnley 11 2 2 7 9 22 -13 8
18 Huddersfield Town 11 1 3 7 8 21 -13 6
19 Cardiff City 10 1 2 7 6 18 -12 5
20 Fulham 12 0 2 10 8 30 -22 2

Three wins, seven defeats away for Bournemouth.  Just 12 goals scored away against 18 scored at home by Everton.

Bournemouth’s one hope however comes from the fact that Everton can concede at home – they have let in 16 goals, so Bournemouth might bank on their one goal a game.  It could be enough to get them a draw.

Indeed they might even fancy snatching a victory given how poor Everton’s results have been of late…

02 Dec 2018 Liverpool v Everton L 1-0
05 Dec 2018 Everton v Newcastle United D 1-1
10 Dec 2018 Everton v Watford D 2-2
15 Dec 2018 Manchester City v Everton L 3-1
23 Dec 2018 Everton v Tottenham Hotspur L 2-6
26 Dec 2018 Burnley v Everton W 1-5
29 Dec 2018 Brighton and Hove Albion v Everton L 1-0
01 Jan 2019 Everton v Leicester City L 0-1
05 Jan 2019 Everton v Lincoln City FAC W 2-1

Leaving aside the Lincoln game (and that victory was only by one goal) there is one outstanding win (against Burnley) balanced by a slaughtering by Tottenham – at Goodison.

The only good thing for Everton is that Bournemouth’s bad run has gone on even longer…

03 Nov 2018 Bournemouth v Manchester United L 1-2
10 Nov 2018 Newcastle United v Bournemouth L 2-1
25 Nov 2018 Bournemouth v Arsenal L 1-2
01 Dec 2018 Manchester City v Bournemouth L 3-1
04 Dec 2018 Bournemouth v Huddersfield Town W 2-1
08 Dec 2018  Bournemouth v Liverpool L 0-4
15 Dec 2018 Wolverhampton W v Bournemouth L 2-0
19 Dec 2018 Chelsea v Bournemouth Lge Cup L 1-0
22 Dec 2018 Bournemouth v Brighton and Hove W 2-0
26 Dec 2018 Tottenham Hotspur v Bournemouth L 5-0
30 Dec 2018 Manchester United v AFC Bournemouth L 4-1
02 Jan 2019 Bournemouth v Watford D 3-3
05 Jan 2019  Bournemouth v Brighton and Hove FAC L 1-3

Two wins in 13 games is relegation form, not top 10 and Bournemouth need to get this form sorted out fast or else they will sink.  Indeed it is only the poverty of displays by teams near the bottom that means Bournemouth are in 12th.

Injuries

Physioroom note that Bournemouth have 8 injuries although four are listed as possibly being ok for today after late fitness tests: Fraser King, Wilson and Gosling.   Francis, Solanke, Cook and Smith are out.

Everton seem to have no injuries.

Psychology

This really is a case of who can pick themselves up off the deck and deliver some proper free flowing football.  Whoever does will win.   If both fail to gain some confidence then a draw is the obvious outcome, but if through one means or another Everton can get a goal I think Bournemouth will just crumble mentally.

Bournemouth v Brighton FA Cup. The predictions and the psychology

Yet another South Coast Derby – well not really a derby but as with Southampton fans, these teams can all remember the days when all three teams were in the lower leagues looking up at the big boys.  Now all three are up there, and it is just Portsmouth on the south coast who can look on in annoyance, as their day has been and gone.

Portsmouth have won the cup twice, most recently in 2008, and actually made the final again two years later, Brighton have made the final once, while Southampton have won it once (in 1976) and been runners’ up twice.

Thus there is a bit of experience there – but not that much.

So to Bournemouth and Brighton.

Bournemouth have the home advantage and they have made use of it with five wins and three draws out of eight.  19 scored and 17 conceded in 11 games which on its own suggests a 1-1 draw.

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Manchester City 11 10 0 1 37 10 27 30
2 Liverpool 10 9 1 0 27 3 24 28
3 Arsenal 11 8 2 1 24 10 14 26
4 Chelsea 11 6 4 1 19 8 11 22
5 Manchester United 10 6 3 1 21 13 8 21
6 Tottenham Hotspur 9 6 0 3 18 9 9 18
7 Brighton and Hove 10 5 3 2 15 11 4 18
8 AFC Bournemouth 11 5 3 3 19 17 2 18

Brighton are in the lower reaches of the away league table

15 Brighton and Hove 11 2 2 7 9 18 -9 8
16 Southampton 11 2 2 7 10 21 -11 8
17 Burnley 11 2 2 7 9 22 -13 8
18 Cardiff City 10 1 2 7 6 18 -12 5
19 Huddersfield Town 10 1 2 7 8 21 -13 5
20 Fulham 11 0 2 9 7 28 -21 2

Two wins, two draws and seven defeats from Brighton away, only nine scored in 11 games and 18 against does not make healthy reading.

The Psychological Effect

Combining the tables of home and away results Brighton are 13th and Bournemouth 12th, and both will be finding that acceptable, giving their limited resources.  They are 10 and 11 points respectively above the relegation zone, so in many regards the relief to get away from the bottom of the league itself isn’t there.  But in both cases a good cup run brings more finances, and of course greater publicity and belief.

But for the managers, going out of the cup early on, when there is a chance that a bad run in the league could draw the club into the relegation mire, is not necessarily a bad thing.  And certainly what no manager with a modest sized squad wants is the start of a set of injuries caused by FA Cup matches.

So lots at stake for local south coast pride, but a feeling for the loser (and especially their manager) that it makes it slightly easier to ensure a decent mid-table finish to the season.

Taking this into account we come back to the home-away goal scoring.

Bournemouth at home have a goal tally of 19-17

Brighton away have a goal tally of 9-18.

That makes it look like Bournemouth all the way.  Indeed in recent years it has all gone Bournemouth’s way…  In this table D is a draw and AFC indicates AFC Bournemouth was the winner.

09 Oct 2010 Brighton v AFC Bournemouth D 1-1 League One
22 Jan 2011 AFC Bournemouth v Brighton AFC 1-0 League One
30 Nov 2013 AFC Bournemouth v Brighton D 1-1 Championship
01 Jan 2014 Brighton v AFC Bournemouth D 1-1 Championship
01 Nov 2014 AFC Bournemouth v Brighton AFC 3-2 Championship
10 Apr 2015 Brighton v AFC Bournemouth AFC 0-2 Championship
15 Sep 2017 AFC Bournemouth v Brighton AFC 2-1 Premier League
19 Sep 2017 AFC Bournemouth v Brighton AFC 1-0 League Cup
01 Jan 2018 Brighton v AFC Bournemouth D 2-2 Premier League
22 Dec 2018 AFC Bournemouth v Brighton AFC 2-0 Premier League

So recent history suggests Bournemouth as well.  I’ll go for 2-1.

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Bournemouth: the predictions

In terms of home form Wolverhampton Wanderers are dead on mid-table

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Liverpool 16 13 3 0 34 6 28 42
2 Manchester City 16 13 2 1 45 9 36 41
3 Tottenham Hotspur 16 12 0 4 30 16 14 36
4 Chelsea 16 10 4 2 33 13 20 34
5 Arsenal 16 10 4 2 35 20 15 34
6 Manchester United 16 7 5 4 28 26 2 26
7 Everton 16 6 6 4 23 19 4 24
8 AFC Bournemouth 16 7 2 7 25 26 -1 23
9 Leicester City 16 6 4 6 21 20 1 22
10 Wolverhampton W 16 6 4 6 17 19 -2 22

Away from home Bournemouth are in much the same position.  Here’s the table just showing away games…

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Tottenham Hotspur 10 8 0 2 19 10 9 24
2 Liverpool 9 7 2 0 19 5 14 23
3 Manchester City 8 5 2 1 15 4 11 17
4 Arsenal 7 4 2 1 18 12 6 14
5 Chelsea 7 4 1 2 14 6 8 13
6 Manchester United 8 3 2 3 14 15 -1 11
7 Leicester City 8 3 2 3 11 12 -1 11
8 Wolverhampton W 8 3 2 3 7 8 -1 11
9 AFC Bournemouth 7 3 0 4 11 12 -1 9

Interestingly Wolverhampton at home and Bournemouth away both have negative goal differences, and just one goal apart, Wolverhampton at home on -2 and Bournemouth away on -1.

But Bournemouth are scoring and conceding at a much lower rate away than Wolverhampton are achieving at home.

Here are Wolverhampton’s home games of late

29 Sep 2018 Wolverhampton W v Southampton W 2-0 Premier League
20 Oct 2018 Wolverhampton W v Watford L 0-2 Premier League
03 Nov 2018 Wolverhampton W v Tottenham H L 2-3 Premier League
25 Nov 2018 Wolverhampton W v Huddersfield T L 0-2 Premier League
05 Dec 2018 Wolverhampton v Chelsea W 2-1 Premier League

Two wins and three defeats in the last five.

Bournemouth away also delivers three defeats and two wins.  It seems neither team wants to get away from the rut.

22 Sep 2018 Burnley v AFC Bournemouth L 4-0 Premier League
06 Oct 2018 Watford v AFC Bournemouth W 0-4 Premier League
27 Oct 2018 Fulham v AFC Bournemouth W 0-3 Premier League
10 Nov 2018 Newcastle United v AFC Bournemouth L 2-1 Premier League
01 Dec 2018 Manchester City v AFC Bournemouth L 3-1 Premier League

Wolverhampton have the advantage in that they are at home and their last match was a stonking 2-1 victory over Chelsea.  With the scoring records overall of these two we might go for a goalless draw, but there have been 18 goals in these last five Bournemouth away games and 14 in the last five Wolverhampton home win.

This suggests goals; three a game in fact, possibly four.  One might even start looking at a 2-2 draw.  Otherwise we are thinking that the 2-1 win over Chelsea could give Wolverhampton confidence and they migh squeeze out the win – again 2-1, although 3-1 if Bournemouth lose heart near the end.