Everton v Arsenal, the predictions

 

After a poor run of form in January, Everton have picked up of late…

Date Game Res Score Competition
02 Feb 2019 Everton v Wolverhampton W L 1-3 Premier League
06 Feb 2019 Everton v Manchester City L 0-2 Premier League
09 Feb 2019 Watford v Everton L 1-0 Premier League
26 Feb 2019 Cardiff City v Everton W 0-3 Premier League
03 Mar 2019 Everton v Liverpool D 0-0 Premier League
09 Mar 2019 Newcastle United v Everton L 3-2 Premier League
17 Mar 2019 Everton v Chelsea W 2-0 Premier League
30 Mar 2019 West Ham United v Everton W 0-2 Premier League

Those three defeats in February made things look pretty awful at Goodison, but since then three wins, one defeat and one draw has improved the league standing with Everton now 10th, some 20 points behind Arsenal.

But for a game like this what makes for interesting reading is Everton’s home form against Arsenal’s away form.

Here is the home form table

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Manchester City 17 16 0 1 55 12 43 48
2 Liverpool 16 14 2 0 46 10 36 44
3 Arsenal 17 14 2 1 39 12 27 44
4 Chelsea 16 10 5 1 32 10 22 35
5 Manchester United 15 9 5 1 30 19 11 32
6 Tottenham Hotspur 15 10 1 4 27 13 14 31
7 Wolverhampton Wanderers 16 8 3 5 24 20 4 27
8 West Ham United 17 8 3 6 27 25 2 27
9 AFC Bournemouth 16 7 5 4 28 21 7 26
10 Watford 15 8 2 5 23 20 3 26
11 Everton 16 7 4 5 23 21 2 25

Seven wins, four draws and five defeats for Everton with a goal difference of +2.

Now Arsenal’s away form…

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Liverpool 16 10 5 1 26 9 17 35
2 Tottenham Hotspur 17 11 0 6 33 21 12 33
3 Manchester City 15 10 2 3 28 9 19 32
4 Manchester United 17 9 2 6 31 24 7 29
5 Chelsea 16 9 1 6 23 24 -1 28
6 Leicester City 16 6 3 7 21 24 -3 21
7 Crystal Palace 16 6 2 8 25 26 -1 20
8 Watford 17 5 5 7 24 27 -3 20
9 Wolverhampton Wanderers 16 5 5 6 16 19 -3 20
10 Arsenal 14 5 4 5 26 27 -1 19

For Arsenal to have a better away form than Everton’s home form, Arsenal would have to win their two away games “in hand” against the rest of the pack.  But it is also interesting to note that if Arsenal did win these two away games they would be sixth in the away table – four points worse than Chelsea in fifth, but a major upgrade on the away form of last season.

But one thing to note is that Arsenal do score more goals away than Everton do at home (26 in 14 to Arsenal giving a rate of 1.86 goals a game.   Everton have scored 23 in 16 giving a rate of 1.44 per game).

However when we compare Arsenal from the start of February against the details above for Everton we find something rather interesting…

Date Game Res Score Competition
03 Feb 2019 Manchester City v Arsenal L 3-1 Premier League
09 Feb 2019 Huddersfield T v Arsenal W 1-2 Premier League
14 Feb 2019 FC BATE Borisov v Arsenal L 1-0 Europa League
21 Feb 2019 Arsenal v FC BATE Borisov W 3-0 Europa League
24 Feb 2019 Arsenal v Southampton W 2-0 Premier League
27 Feb 2019 Arsenal v Bournemouth W 5-1 Premier League
02 Mar 2019 Tottenham H v Arsenal D 1-1 Premier League
07 Mar 2019 Rennes v Arsenal L 3-1 Europa League
10 Mar 2019 Arsenal v Manchester Utd W 2-0 Premier League
14 Mar 2019 Arsenal v Rennes W 3-0 Europa League
01 Apr 2019 Arsenal v Newcastle Utd W 2-0 Premier League

Everton have played one more league game than Arsenal in the period but Arsenal have played an extra four Europa games.

Taking the league games only, Arsenal have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 1.  Everton have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 4 – those four defeats coming against Wolverhampton, Manchester City, Watford and Newcastle.

On those statistics I’d say an Arsenal victory is likely, but this is an away game for Arsenal, and that makes me a lot less certain.

 

Everton v Bournemouth: the spending, predictions, psychology, injuries

Everton are currently 11th in the Football League, and yet they are the 5th top spending club since 2012/13 according to Transfer Market’s tables

Club Expenditure Men in Income Men out Balance
1 164 163
2 248 236
3 129 134
4 138 140
5 111 120
6 135 128

They are in fact one of the teams who have spent and spent, but to no real gain.

At home they are the 9th best performing team in the league, and yet actually below Bournemouth who are a fraction of Everton’s size and have a fraction of their money.

What’s more if Everton are having to pay for their new stadium, that is going to bring a period of privation and they need to be over-achieving now not under-achieving in order to get through that period.

Here’s the home form…

Home games only

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Manchester City 11 10 0 1 37 10 27 30
2 Liverpool 10 9 1 0 27 3 24 28
3 Arsenal 11 8 2 1 24 10 14 26
4 Chelsea 12 7 4 1 21 9 12 25
5 Manchester United 10 6 3 1 21 13 8 21
6 Tottenham Hotspur 9 6 0 3 18 9 9 18
7 Brighton and Hove Albion 11 5 3 3 15 12 3 18
8 AFC Bournemouth 11 5 3 3 19 17 2 18
9 Everton 11 5 3 3 18 16 2 18

Five wins, three draws and three defeats.

But if there is a salvation here it is that Bournemouth away are as poor as Everton away.

Away games only

14 Everton 10 2 3 5 13 15 -2 9
15 AFC Bournemouth 10 3 0 7 12 23 -11 9
16 Brighton and Hove Albion 11 2 2 7 9 18 -9 8
17 Burnley 11 2 2 7 9 22 -13 8
18 Huddersfield Town 11 1 3 7 8 21 -13 6
19 Cardiff City 10 1 2 7 6 18 -12 5
20 Fulham 12 0 2 10 8 30 -22 2

Three wins, seven defeats away for Bournemouth.  Just 12 goals scored away against 18 scored at home by Everton.

Bournemouth’s one hope however comes from the fact that Everton can concede at home – they have let in 16 goals, so Bournemouth might bank on their one goal a game.  It could be enough to get them a draw.

Indeed they might even fancy snatching a victory given how poor Everton’s results have been of late…

02 Dec 2018 Liverpool v Everton L 1-0
05 Dec 2018 Everton v Newcastle United D 1-1
10 Dec 2018 Everton v Watford D 2-2
15 Dec 2018 Manchester City v Everton L 3-1
23 Dec 2018 Everton v Tottenham Hotspur L 2-6
26 Dec 2018 Burnley v Everton W 1-5
29 Dec 2018 Brighton and Hove Albion v Everton L 1-0
01 Jan 2019 Everton v Leicester City L 0-1
05 Jan 2019 Everton v Lincoln City FAC W 2-1

Leaving aside the Lincoln game (and that victory was only by one goal) there is one outstanding win (against Burnley) balanced by a slaughtering by Tottenham – at Goodison.

The only good thing for Everton is that Bournemouth’s bad run has gone on even longer…

03 Nov 2018 Bournemouth v Manchester United L 1-2
10 Nov 2018 Newcastle United v Bournemouth L 2-1
25 Nov 2018 Bournemouth v Arsenal L 1-2
01 Dec 2018 Manchester City v Bournemouth L 3-1
04 Dec 2018 Bournemouth v Huddersfield Town W 2-1
08 Dec 2018  Bournemouth v Liverpool L 0-4
15 Dec 2018 Wolverhampton W v Bournemouth L 2-0
19 Dec 2018 Chelsea v Bournemouth Lge Cup L 1-0
22 Dec 2018 Bournemouth v Brighton and Hove W 2-0
26 Dec 2018 Tottenham Hotspur v Bournemouth L 5-0
30 Dec 2018 Manchester United v AFC Bournemouth L 4-1
02 Jan 2019 Bournemouth v Watford D 3-3
05 Jan 2019  Bournemouth v Brighton and Hove FAC L 1-3

Two wins in 13 games is relegation form, not top 10 and Bournemouth need to get this form sorted out fast or else they will sink.  Indeed it is only the poverty of displays by teams near the bottom that means Bournemouth are in 12th.

Injuries

Physioroom note that Bournemouth have 8 injuries although four are listed as possibly being ok for today after late fitness tests: Fraser King, Wilson and Gosling.   Francis, Solanke, Cook and Smith are out.

Everton seem to have no injuries.

Psychology

This really is a case of who can pick themselves up off the deck and deliver some proper free flowing football.  Whoever does will win.   If both fail to gain some confidence then a draw is the obvious outcome, but if through one means or another Everton can get a goal I think Bournemouth will just crumble mentally.

Everton v Leicester: the predictions

Tuesday 1 January

12:30 Everton v Leicester City
Referee: Martin Atkinson
Assistants: Stephen Child, Lee Betts
Fourth official: Anthony Taylor

Everton are currently 8th in the table when it comes to home matches only…

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Liverpool 10 9 1 0 27 3 24 28
2 Manchester City 10 9 0 1 35 9 26 27
3 Arsenal 10 7 2 1 20 9 11 23
4 Chelsea 10 6 3 1 19 8 11 21
5 Tottenham Hotspur 9 6 0 3 18 9 9 18
6 Manchester United 9 5 3 1 17 12 5 18
7 Brighton and Hove Albion 10 5 3 2 15 11 4 18
8 Everton 10 5 3 2 18 15 3 18

Five wins, three draws and two defeats but with only just having achieved positive score in the goal difference.  They sit alongside Tottenham and Manchester United who both have a home game in hand.

Leicester are in ninth place in the away games table with a creditable four wins, two draws and four defeats and a goal difference of minus one.

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Tottenham Hotspur 11 9 0 2 25 12 13 27
2 Liverpool 10 8 2 0 21 5 16 26
3 Chelsea 10 6 2 2 18 8 10 20
4 Manchester City 9 5 2 2 16 6 10 17
5 Arsenal 10 4 3 3 22 21 1 15
6 Wolverhampton Wanderers 10 4 3 3 11 10 1 15
7 Manchester United 10 4 2 4 20 19 1 14
8 West Ham United 9 4 2 3 13 12 1 14
9 Leicester City 10 4 2 4 12 13 -1 14

So neither team is knocking in the goals in their respective tables: Everton 1.8 to 1.5 per game and Leicester 1.2 to 1.3 per game.

Everton’s run in the Premier League has been poor of late…

Date Game Res Score
02 Dec 2018 Liverpool v Everton L 1-0
05 Dec 2018 Everton v Newcastle United D 1-1
10 Dec 2018 Everton v Watford D 2-2
15 Dec 2018 Manchester City v Everton L 3-1
23 Dec 2018 Everton v Tottenham Hotspur L 2-6
26 Dec 2018 Burnley v Everton W 1-5
29 Dec 2018 Brighton and Hove Albion v Everton L 1-0

Their one success in December being a thumping of a Burnley side whose manager committed team suicide by claiming that his team would not be able to win anything because the refs are all against them!  A bizarre thing to do.

Leicester have slightly edged this side of things in December – and as above we are looking here at Premier League matches only.

Date Game Res Score
01 Dec 2018 Leicester City v Watford W 2-0
05 Dec 2018 Fulham v Leicester City D 1-1
08 Dec 2018 Leicester City v Tottenham Hotspur L 0-2
15 Dec 2018 Crystal Palace v Leicester City L 1-0
22 Dec 2018 Chelsea v Leicester City W 0-1
26 Dec 2018 Leicester City v Manchester City W 2-1
29 Dec 2018 Leicester City v Cardiff City L 0-1

For Leicester the Cardiff result looks out of context from the rest, one presumes that they simply thought it would all be too easy after those two sensational results against Chelsea and Manchester City.

But given the closeness of the home and away results shown aabove I think the recent form could hold sway here and I’d go for a Leicester win.

 

Burnley v Everton match predictions

For Burnley’s manager to blame his side’s defeat to Arsenal on the fact that referees favour the bigger clubs and won’t give his team penalties may have convinced some of the journalists that his team were hard done by, but doesn’t really explain the recent run of results…

Date Game Res Score Competition
20 Oct 2018 Manchester City v Burnley L 5-0 Premier League
28 Oct 2018 Burnley v Chelsea L 0-4 Premier League
03 Nov 2018 West Ham United v Burnley L 4-2 Premier League
10 Nov 2018 Leicester City v Burnley D 0-0 Premier League
26 Nov 2018 Burnley v Newcastle United L 1-2 Premier League
01 Dec 2018 Crystal Palace v Burnley L 2-0 Premier League
05 Dec 2018 Burnley v Liverpool L 1-3 Premier League
08 Dec 2018 Burnley v Brighton and Hove Albion W 1-0 Premier League
15 Dec 2018 Tottenham Hotspur v Burnley L 1-0 Premier League
22 Dec 2018 Arsenal v Burnley L 3-1 Premier League

Eight defeats one draw and one victory might be excused by having fixtures against Liverpool, Tottenham and Arsenal, in the last four, and Man City and Chelsea at the start of the run, but still the club has also been losing to Newcastle, Palace and Brighton.

Everton’s run across the same period shows the same gulf between the top clubs and those lower down the league…

Date Game Res Score Competition
03 Nov 2018 Everton v Brighton and Hove Albion W 3-1 Premier League
11 Nov 2018 Chelsea v Everton D 0-0 Premier League
24 Nov 2018 Everton v Cardiff City W 1-0 Premier League
02 Dec 2018 Liverpool v Everton L 1-0 Premier League
05 Dec 2018 Everton v Newcastle United D 1-1 Premier League
10 Dec 2018 Everton v Watford D 2-2 Premier League
15 Dec 2018 Manchester City v Everton L 3-1 Premier League
23 Dec 2018 Everton v Tottenham Hotspur L 2-6 Premier League

And here we notice that although they are losing to the clubs at the top of the table, they are only managing to draw with Newcastle and Watford.  The two wins have come against Brighton and Cardiff.

Burnley’s league results at home have not been reassuring

Pos Club P W D L F A GD Pts
16 Crystal Palace 8 2 2 4 5 8 -3 8
17 Fulham 8 2 2 4 10 18 -8 8
18 Burnley 8 2 1 5 9 15 -6 7
19 Newcastle United 10 2 1 7 7 15 -8 7
20 Huddersfield Town 10 1 2 7 4 14 -10 5

Two wins, one draw and five defeats with just nine goals scored in eight games, is not the home form of a team surviving in the top tier.

But they might take some hope from the fact that Everton away have an equally miserable position

Pos Club P W D L F A GD Pts
15 Southampton 10 2 1 7 10 21 -11 7
16 Everton 8 1 3 4 8 13 -5 6
17 Huddersfield Town 8 1 2 5 7 17 -10 5
18 Burnley 10 1 2 7 7 21 -14 5
19 Fulham 10 0 2 8 6 24 -18 2
20 Cardiff City 8 0 1 7 5 18 -13 1

Eight away games for Everton have given one win, three draws and four defeats, with eight scored and 13 conceded.

To combine those goals it is 5-9 at home for Burnley and 8-13 away for Everton.

Pulling it all together a draw looks the likely outcome and the chances of a goal fest are low.  Maybe the classic 1-1 is the most likely result.

The two clubs have met just eight times in the Premier League before this match, and it is four wins each so far, with not a PL draw between them.  That again suggests it might be time for one.   Burnley have actually had the better of things in the last four games, winning three and losing one, but when the main thrust of a manager’s post match commentary is the referee, that suggests to me, he’s running out of excuses.  It might be true, but it is not the best thing to say.  What motivation does that give to the players, apart from saying, you’ve got no chance, the referee is against you?