Everton v Bournemouth: the spending, predictions, psychology, injuries

Everton are currently 11th in the Football League, and yet they are the 5th top spending club since 2012/13 according to Transfer Market’s tables

Club Expenditure Men in Income Men out Balance
1 164 163
2 248 236
3 129 134
4 138 140
5 111 120
6 135 128

They are in fact one of the teams who have spent and spent, but to no real gain.

At home they are the 9th best performing team in the league, and yet actually below Bournemouth who are a fraction of Everton’s size and have a fraction of their money.

What’s more if Everton are having to pay for their new stadium, that is going to bring a period of privation and they need to be over-achieving now not under-achieving in order to get through that period.

Here’s the home form…

Home games only

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Manchester City 11 10 0 1 37 10 27 30
2 Liverpool 10 9 1 0 27 3 24 28
3 Arsenal 11 8 2 1 24 10 14 26
4 Chelsea 12 7 4 1 21 9 12 25
5 Manchester United 10 6 3 1 21 13 8 21
6 Tottenham Hotspur 9 6 0 3 18 9 9 18
7 Brighton and Hove Albion 11 5 3 3 15 12 3 18
8 AFC Bournemouth 11 5 3 3 19 17 2 18
9 Everton 11 5 3 3 18 16 2 18

Five wins, three draws and three defeats.

But if there is a salvation here it is that Bournemouth away are as poor as Everton away.

Away games only

14 Everton 10 2 3 5 13 15 -2 9
15 AFC Bournemouth 10 3 0 7 12 23 -11 9
16 Brighton and Hove Albion 11 2 2 7 9 18 -9 8
17 Burnley 11 2 2 7 9 22 -13 8
18 Huddersfield Town 11 1 3 7 8 21 -13 6
19 Cardiff City 10 1 2 7 6 18 -12 5
20 Fulham 12 0 2 10 8 30 -22 2

Three wins, seven defeats away for Bournemouth.  Just 12 goals scored away against 18 scored at home by Everton.

Bournemouth’s one hope however comes from the fact that Everton can concede at home – they have let in 16 goals, so Bournemouth might bank on their one goal a game.  It could be enough to get them a draw.

Indeed they might even fancy snatching a victory given how poor Everton’s results have been of late…

02 Dec 2018 Liverpool v Everton L 1-0
05 Dec 2018 Everton v Newcastle United D 1-1
10 Dec 2018 Everton v Watford D 2-2
15 Dec 2018 Manchester City v Everton L 3-1
23 Dec 2018 Everton v Tottenham Hotspur L 2-6
26 Dec 2018 Burnley v Everton W 1-5
29 Dec 2018 Brighton and Hove Albion v Everton L 1-0
01 Jan 2019 Everton v Leicester City L 0-1
05 Jan 2019 Everton v Lincoln City FAC W 2-1

Leaving aside the Lincoln game (and that victory was only by one goal) there is one outstanding win (against Burnley) balanced by a slaughtering by Tottenham – at Goodison.

The only good thing for Everton is that Bournemouth’s bad run has gone on even longer…

03 Nov 2018 Bournemouth v Manchester United L 1-2
10 Nov 2018 Newcastle United v Bournemouth L 2-1
25 Nov 2018 Bournemouth v Arsenal L 1-2
01 Dec 2018 Manchester City v Bournemouth L 3-1
04 Dec 2018 Bournemouth v Huddersfield Town W 2-1
08 Dec 2018  Bournemouth v Liverpool L 0-4
15 Dec 2018 Wolverhampton W v Bournemouth L 2-0
19 Dec 2018 Chelsea v Bournemouth Lge Cup L 1-0
22 Dec 2018 Bournemouth v Brighton and Hove W 2-0
26 Dec 2018 Tottenham Hotspur v Bournemouth L 5-0
30 Dec 2018 Manchester United v AFC Bournemouth L 4-1
02 Jan 2019 Bournemouth v Watford D 3-3
05 Jan 2019  Bournemouth v Brighton and Hove FAC L 1-3

Two wins in 13 games is relegation form, not top 10 and Bournemouth need to get this form sorted out fast or else they will sink.  Indeed it is only the poverty of displays by teams near the bottom that means Bournemouth are in 12th.

Injuries

Physioroom note that Bournemouth have 8 injuries although four are listed as possibly being ok for today after late fitness tests: Fraser King, Wilson and Gosling.   Francis, Solanke, Cook and Smith are out.

Everton seem to have no injuries.

Psychology

This really is a case of who can pick themselves up off the deck and deliver some proper free flowing football.  Whoever does will win.   If both fail to gain some confidence then a draw is the obvious outcome, but if through one means or another Everton can get a goal I think Bournemouth will just crumble mentally.

Everton v Leicester: the predictions

Tuesday 1 January

12:30 Everton v Leicester City
Referee: Martin Atkinson
Assistants: Stephen Child, Lee Betts
Fourth official: Anthony Taylor

Everton are currently 8th in the table when it comes to home matches only…

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Liverpool 10 9 1 0 27 3 24 28
2 Manchester City 10 9 0 1 35 9 26 27
3 Arsenal 10 7 2 1 20 9 11 23
4 Chelsea 10 6 3 1 19 8 11 21
5 Tottenham Hotspur 9 6 0 3 18 9 9 18
6 Manchester United 9 5 3 1 17 12 5 18
7 Brighton and Hove Albion 10 5 3 2 15 11 4 18
8 Everton 10 5 3 2 18 15 3 18

Five wins, three draws and two defeats but with only just having achieved positive score in the goal difference.  They sit alongside Tottenham and Manchester United who both have a home game in hand.

Leicester are in ninth place in the away games table with a creditable four wins, two draws and four defeats and a goal difference of minus one.

Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Tottenham Hotspur 11 9 0 2 25 12 13 27
2 Liverpool 10 8 2 0 21 5 16 26
3 Chelsea 10 6 2 2 18 8 10 20
4 Manchester City 9 5 2 2 16 6 10 17
5 Arsenal 10 4 3 3 22 21 1 15
6 Wolverhampton Wanderers 10 4 3 3 11 10 1 15
7 Manchester United 10 4 2 4 20 19 1 14
8 West Ham United 9 4 2 3 13 12 1 14
9 Leicester City 10 4 2 4 12 13 -1 14

So neither team is knocking in the goals in their respective tables: Everton 1.8 to 1.5 per game and Leicester 1.2 to 1.3 per game.

Everton’s run in the Premier League has been poor of late…

Date Game Res Score
02 Dec 2018 Liverpool v Everton L 1-0
05 Dec 2018 Everton v Newcastle United D 1-1
10 Dec 2018 Everton v Watford D 2-2
15 Dec 2018 Manchester City v Everton L 3-1
23 Dec 2018 Everton v Tottenham Hotspur L 2-6
26 Dec 2018 Burnley v Everton W 1-5
29 Dec 2018 Brighton and Hove Albion v Everton L 1-0

Their one success in December being a thumping of a Burnley side whose manager committed team suicide by claiming that his team would not be able to win anything because the refs are all against them!  A bizarre thing to do.

Leicester have slightly edged this side of things in December – and as above we are looking here at Premier League matches only.

Date Game Res Score
01 Dec 2018 Leicester City v Watford W 2-0
05 Dec 2018 Fulham v Leicester City D 1-1
08 Dec 2018 Leicester City v Tottenham Hotspur L 0-2
15 Dec 2018 Crystal Palace v Leicester City L 1-0
22 Dec 2018 Chelsea v Leicester City W 0-1
26 Dec 2018 Leicester City v Manchester City W 2-1
29 Dec 2018 Leicester City v Cardiff City L 0-1

For Leicester the Cardiff result looks out of context from the rest, one presumes that they simply thought it would all be too easy after those two sensational results against Chelsea and Manchester City.

But given the closeness of the home and away results shown aabove I think the recent form could hold sway here and I’d go for a Leicester win.