Fulham v Wolverhampton Wanderers: match predictions

In broad terms things could not look much worse for Fulham, being bottom of the table and four points off safety

Pos Tam P W D L F A GD Pts
16 Southampton 18 3 6 9 19 33 -14 15
17 Cardiff City 18 4 2 12 18 38 -20 14
18 Burnley 18 3 3 12 16 36 -20 12
19 Huddersfield Town 18 2 4 12 11 31 -20 10
20 Fulham 18 2 4 12 16 42 -26 10

Although their home form isn’t quite as bad as one might assume…

15 Southampton 8 1 5 2 9 12 -3 8
16 Crystal Palace 8 2 2 4 5 8 -3 8
17 Fulham 8 2 2 4 10 18 -8 8
18 Burnley 8 2 1 5 9 15 -6 7
19 Newcastle United 10 2 1 7 7 15 -8 7
20 Huddersfield Town 10 1 2 7 4 14 -10 5

The fact is they have only lost half of their games at home, drawing two and winning two.  But their goal difference at home is minus eight, due in no small measure to the defeat at the Cottage by Arsenal

But the terrible run of eight successive defeats is now over and although they are not exactly setting football alight since that point, they are now doing a little better…

Date Game Res Score Competition
24 Nov 2018 Fulham v Southampton W 3-2 Premier League
02 Dec 2018 Chelsea v Fulham L 2-0 Premier League
05 Dec 2018 Fulham v Leicester City D 1-1 Premier League
08 Dec 2018 Manchester United v Fulham L 4-1 Premier League
15 Dec 2018 Fulham v West Ham United L 0-2 Premier League
22 Dec 2018 Newcastle United v Fulham D 0-0 Premier League

One win in six is not a cause for celebration, but three games undefeated in six when bottom of the league is at least a straw to grab.

As an away team Woverhampton are mid-table

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Liverpool 10 8 2 0 21 5 16 26
2 Tottenham Hotspur 10 8 0 2 19 10 9 24
3 Manchester City 8 5 2 1 15 4 11 17
4 Chelsea 8 5 1 2 16 7 9 16
5 Arsenal 8 4 2 2 20 15 5 14
6 Manchester United 10 4 2 4 20 19 1 14
7 Leicester City 10 4 2 4 12 13 -1 14
8 Watford 9 3 3 3 11 10 1 12
9 West Ham United 8 3 2 3 11 11 0 11
10 Wolverhampton Wanderers 8 3 2 3 7 8 -1 11

While Fulham have 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats, Wolverhampton have 3 wins, 2 draw and 3 defeats away.  While Fulham have conceded 18, scoring 10 at home, Wolverhampton have conceded 8 while scoring seven.   That makes it look like Wolverhampton could just edge this.

But Wolverhampton’s form of late is strange…  We can see a poor run of form across six games running up to 30 November with a defeat to struggling Cardiff, but then straight wins against Chelsea, Newcastle and Bournemouth.   The defeat at home to Liverpool was certaintly predictable however.

20 Oct 2018 Wolverhampton Wanderers v Watford L 0-2
27 Oct 2018 Brighton and Hove Albion v Wolverhampton Wanderers L 1-0
03 Nov 2018 Wolverhampton Wanderers v Tottenham Hotspur L 2-3
11 Nov 2018 Arsenal v Wolverhampton Wanderers D 1-1
25 Nov 2018 Wolverhampton Wanderers v Huddersfield Town L 0-2
30 Nov 2018 Cardiff City v Wolverhampton Wanderers L 2-1
05 Dec 2018 Wolverhampton Wanderers v Chelsea W 2-1
09 Dec 2018 Newcastle United v Wolverhampton Wanderers W 1-2
15 Dec 2018 Wolverhampton Wanderers v AFC Bournemouth W 2-0
21 Dec 2018 Wolverhampton Wanderers v Liverpool L 0-2

If however we take just the away games this is what we see…

27 Oct 2018 Brighton and Hove Albion v Wolverhampton Wanderers L 1-0
11 Nov 2018 Arsenal v Wolverhampton Wanderers D 1-1
30 Nov 2018 Cardiff City v Wolverhampton Wanderers L 2-1
09 Dec 2018 Newcastle United v Wolverhampton Wanderers W 1-2

One win in four, and that against a Newcastle team that doesn’t seem to know where it is going.

These away defeats to Brighton and Cardiff must give Fulham some hope of them coming away with a draw.

Fulham have not won in the last five so a win might be too much to ask but a 1-1- draw is possible if they can avoid the 1-2 defeat that seems more likely.

Wolverhampton v Liverpool: the predictions

Liverpool as we know are having an excellent season following their recent spending sprees in the transfer market.  I doubt that Liverpool management seriously think they will win the league but they are looking to put down a marker for next season, while trying to win a cup this season.

Wolverhampton meanwhile are looking simply to hold on to their status and gradually re-establish themselves as a Premier League club.

Before this weekend’s games Wolverhampton are sitting 7th in the league – a much higher position than many predicted.   But their home form has more of a mid-table look about it…

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Manchester City 9 9 0 0 33 6 27 27
2 Liverpool 8 7 1 0 18 2 16 22
3 Chelsea 9 6 3 0 19 7 12 21
4 Arsenal 9 6 2 1 17 8 9 20
5 Everton 9 5 3 1 16 9 7 18
6 Tottenham Hotspur 7 5 0 2 12 6 6 15
7 Manchester United 8 4 3 1 14 11 3 15
8 Watford 9 5 0 4 14 15 -1 15
9 Brighton and Hove Albion 8 4 2 2 13 10 3 14
10 Wolverhampton Wanderers 9 4 2 3 12 11 1 14

Four wins, two draws and three defeats, with 12 goals scored and 11 conceded.  After a seven match winless run they have just put together three victories, a real bounce back from a defeat at the end of last month to Cardiff.

30 Nov 2018 Cardiff City v Wolverhampton Wanderers L 2-1 Premier League
05 Dec 2018 Wolverhampton Wanderers v Chelsea W 2-1 Premier League
09 Dec 2018 Newcastle United v Wolverhampton Wanderers W 1-2 Premier League
15 Dec 2018 Wolverhampton Wanderers v AFC Bournemouth W 2-0 Premier League

All the more credit to Wolverhampton at home in that the first of these three games was against Chelsea.

Liverpool’s away form is beaten only by Tottenham who have been allowed to move fixtures around to try and accommodate the lack of, well, home accommodation.

Pos Team Pld W D L F A GD Pts
1 Tottenham Hotspur 10 8 0 2 19 10 9 24
2 Liverpool 9 7 2 0 19 5 14 23
3 Manchester City 8 5 2 1 15 4 11 17
4 Chelsea 8 5 1 2 16 7 9 16
5 Arsenal 8 4 2 2 20 15 5 14

Seven wins and two draws in nine Liverpool away games with just five conceded is impressive form by any standards.  A 2-0 average victory.

Thus if Wolverhampton are full of confidence so are Liverpool.  From 7 October onwards they have only lost twice and both of these defeats have been in the Champions League – which is interesting considering that some Liverpool fans consider this their natural chance of a trophy.

07 Oct 2018 Liverpool v Manchester City D 0-0 Premier League
20 Oct 2018 Huddersfield Town v Liverpool W 0-1 Premier League
24 Oct 2018 Liverpool v Crvena Zvezda W 4-0 Champions League
27 Oct 2018 Liverpool v Cardiff City W 4-1 Premier League
03 Nov 2018 Arsenal v Liverpool D 1-1 Premier League
06 Nov 2018 Crvena Zvezda v Liverpool L 2-0 Champions League
11 Nov 2018 Liverpool v Fulham W 2-0 Premier League
24 Nov 2018 Watford v Liverpool W 0-3 Premier League
28 Nov 2018 Paris St Germain v Liverpool L 2-1 Champions League
02 Dec 2018 Liverpool v Everton W 1-0 Premier League
05 Dec 2018 Burnley v Liverpool W 1-3 Premier League
08 Dec 2018 AFC Bournemouth v Liverpool W 0-4 Premier League
11 Dec 2018 Liverpool v Napoli W 1-0 Champions League
16 Dec 2018 Liverpool v Manchester United W 3-1 Premier League

So it is six wins in a row in the Premier League for Liverpool, but away from home these have been against Bournemouth, Burnley and Watford.   The last time Liverpool met one of the larger teams in the league away it was a draw.

However for all Wolverhampton’s progress one cannot put them in the category of a serious “top six” club, and this looks like a Liverpool victory all the way.   0-2 to Liverpool, but could be more if Wolverhampton let things slip in the last 15 minutes.

Arsenal v Burnley: the predictions

Arsenal currently possess the fourth best home record in the League

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Manchester City 9 9 0 0 33 6 27 27
2 Liverpool 8 7 1 0 18 2 16 22
3 Chelsea 9 6 3 0 19 7 12 21
4 Arsenal 9 6 2 1 17 8 9 20

Six wins, two draws and one defeat – and that one defeat right at the start of the season.

Burnley away however is a totally different matter

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Tottenham Hotspur 10 8 0 2 19 10 9 24
2 Liverpool 9 7 2 0 19 5 14 23
3 Manchester City 8 5 2 1 15 4 11 17
4 Chelsea 8 5 1 2 16 7 9 16
5 Arsenal 8 4 2 2 20 15 5 14
6 West Ham United 8 3 2 3 11 11 0 11
7 Wolverhampton Wanderers 8 3 2 3 7 8 -1 11
8 Leicester City 9 3 2 4 11 13 -2 11
9 Manchester United 9 3 2 4 15 18 -3 11
10 Newcastle United 8 2 4 2 7 7 0 10
11 Watford 8 2 3 3 9 10 -1 9
12 AFC Bournemouth 8 3 0 5 11 14 -3 9
13 Crystal Palace 9 2 1 6 9 15 -6 7
14 Brighton and Hove Albion 9 2 1 6 7 14 -7 7
15 Everton 8 1 3 4 8 13 -5 6
16 Huddersfield Town 8 1 2 5 7 17 -10 5
17 Burnley 9 1 2 6 6 18 -12 5

One win in nine, two draws and six defeats.  Not exactly setting the place alight.

Burnley’s away win came right back in September – against also low flying Cardiff.  Here are their away games since then…

30 Sep 2018 Cardiff City v Burnley W 1-2 Premier League
20 Oct 2018 Manchester City v Burnley L 5-0 Premier League
03 Nov 2018 West Ham United v Burnley L 4-2 Premier League
10 Nov 2018 Leicester City v Burnley D 0-0 Premier League
01 Dec 2018 Crystal Palace v Burnley L 2-0 Premier League
15 Dec 2018 Tottenham Hotspur v Burnley L 1-0 Premier League

They did however hold Tottenham to just one goal in their last game – but against this Burnley have not scored in their last three away games, and only scored two in their last five and six away goals all season in nine away games.

Arsenal on the other hand, having had 22 games without defeat have now suffered two in a row.   They will be anxious to recover the home fans’ support after losing to Tottenham in the league cup in midweek, and many is the time when we have seen such anxiety become the cause of a downfall.

But Arsenal have scored 17 goals in nine games at home, very much on a par with Liverpool and Chelsea, although admittedly a distance behind the home performance of Manchester City.

Burnley will undoubtedly put in an 11 man defensive display and Arsenal’s best chance is to get an early goal, to force Burnley to move forwards.  But early goals is what Arsenal are not good at this season, which suggests that this could be a difficult affair, possibly ending goalless (which would be a triumph for Burnley) or just 1-0 to the Arsenal, with the goal coming near the end.

On overall form, without taking nerves into account this should end 2-0 to Arsenal – possibly more if their forward line go on the rampage in the last 20 minutes, but much depends on when that first goal occurs.   It is going to be teious with a lot of timewasting from the off by Burnley as they seek to get a point at any cost.  Arsenal need to start scoring first half goals.

 

 

West Ham v Watford: the predictions

West Ham v Watford is one of those strange games that doesn’t always turn out as one might expect.

Here are the results since 1994 at West Ham’s ground…

08 Jan 1994 West Ham United v Watford W 2-1 FA Cup
11 Sep 1999 West Ham United v Watford W 1-0 Premier League
01 May 2004 West Ham United v Watford W 4-0 League Division 1
27 Nov 2004 West Ham United v Watford W 3-2 League Championship
27 Jan 2007 West Ham United v Watford L 0-1 FA Cup
10 Feb 2007 West Ham United v Watford L 0-1 Premier League
07 Mar 2012 West Ham United v Watford D 1-1 League Championship
20 Apr 2016 West Ham United v Watford W 3-1 Premier League
10 Sep 2016 West Ham United v Watford L 2-4 Premier League
As we can see, in the 1990s and early 2000s West Ham won four in a row.  Since then they have gone five with only one win.  Not what one might expect without looking up the record.
In terms of overall form the clubs this season have a very similar record…
Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Liverpool 17 14 3 0 37 7 30 45
2 Manchester City 17 14 2 1 48 10 38 44
3 Tottenham Hotspur 17 13 0 4 31 16 15 39
4 Chelsea 17 11 4 2 35 14 21 37
5 Arsenal 17 10 4 3 37 23 14 34
6 Manchester United 17 7 5 5 29 29 0 26
7 Wolverhampton Wanderers 17 7 4 6 19 19 0 25
8 Everton 17 6 6 5 24 22 2 24
9 West Ham United 17 7 3 7 25 25 0 24
10 Watford 17 7 3 7 23 25 -2 24

In fact the only difference between their overall form is that Watford have scored two goals fewer than West Ham.  It is a remarkable link between the two sides.

So what of West Ham at home

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Manchester City 9 9 0 0 33 6 27 27
2 Liverpool 8 7 1 0 18 2 16 22
3 Chelsea 9 6 3 0 19 7 12 21
4 Arsenal 9 6 2 1 17 8 9 20
5 Everton 9 5 3 1 16 9 7 18
6 Tottenham Hotspur 7 5 0 2 12 6 6 15
7 Manchester United 8 4 3 1 14 11 3 15
8 Watford 9 5 0 4 14 15 -1 15
9 Brighton and Hove Albion 8 4 2 2 13 10 3 14
10 Wolverhampton Wanderers 9 4 2 3 12 11 1 14
11 AFC Bournemouth 9 4 2 3 14 14 0 14
12 West Ham United 9 4 1 4 14 14 0 13

West Ham have four wins, one draw and four defeats, with goal difference of zero.

As for Watford who are away,  here is how their away form pans out so far

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Tottenham Hotspur 10 8 0 2 19 10 9 24
2 Liverpool 9 7 2 0 19 5 14 23
3 Manchester City 8 5 2 1 15 4 11 17
4 Chelsea 8 5 1 2 16 7 9 16
5 Arsenal 8 4 2 2 20 15 5 14
6 West Ham United 8 3 2 3 11 11 0 11
7 Wolverhampton Wanderers 8 3 2 3 7 8 -1 11
8 Leicester City 9 3 2 4 11 13 -2 11
9 Manchester United 9 3 2 4 15 18 -3 11
10 Newcastle United 8 2 4 2 7 7 0 10
11 Watford 8 2 3 3 9 10 -1 9
A slightly worse record emerges: two wins, three draws, three defeats, and a goal difference of -1.
Looking at the goals scored so far we might go for West Ham 2 Watford 1 – if it were not for that habit Watford have of doing ok away to West Ham.  A second bet could be to go for a draw however.
West Ham have certainly picked up after their very dodgy start with four wins in their last five…
24 Nov 2018 West Ham United v Manchester City L 0-4 Premier League
01 Dec 2018 Newcastle United v West Ham United W 0-3 Premier League
04 Dec 2018 West Ham United v Cardiff City W 3-1 Premier League
08 Dec 2018 West Ham United v Crystal Palace W 3-2 Premier League
15 Dec 2018 Fulham v West Ham United W 0-2 Premier League

However these games have all been against clubs that are not doing particularly well this season.  Yes they have scored 11 in the last four, but against teams with very dodgy defences.

Watford’s results of late have been patchy to say the least.  Here are their last 10

06 Oct 2018 Watford v AFC Bournemouth L 0-4 Premier League
20 Oct 2018 Wolverhampton Wanderers v Watford W 0-2 Premier League
27 Oct 2018 Watford v Huddersfield Town W 3-0 Premier League
03 Nov 2018 Newcastle United v Watford L 1-0 Premier League
10 Nov 2018 Southampton v Watford D 1-1 Premier League
24 Nov 2018 Watford v Liverpool L 0-3 Premier League
01 Dec 2018 Leicester City v Watford L 2-0 Premier League
04 Dec 2018 Watford v Manchester City L 1-2 Premier League
10 Dec 2018 Everton v Watford D 2-2 Premier League
15 Dec 2018 Watford v Cardiff City W 3-2 Premier League

Seven games with just one win – that recent result against Watford.  And their two wins before that were against teams also in difficulty at the time – Wolverhampton and Huddersfield.

Despite the draw against Everton and win over Cardiff, it is hard to see Watford getting anything out of this game unless lady luck really turns to smile on them.

Huddersfield v Southampton: the predictions

Huddersfield v Southampton – a battle to get away from the relegation area.

Huddersfield’s home record is the worst in the league

Pos Club P W D L F A GD Pts
15 Southampton 8 1 5 2 9 12 -3 8
16 Crystal Palace 8 2 2 4 5 8 -3 8
17 Fulham 8 2 2 4 10 18 -8 8
18 Burnley 8 2 1 5 9 15 -6 7
19 Newcastle United 9 2 0 7 7 15 -8 6
20 Huddersfield Town 9 1 2 6 3 11 -8 5

Worse even than Southampton who prior to last weekend had not won a game at home, but then went on to end Arsenal’s 22 game unbeaten run.

Southampton’s away form is just as problematic

16 Huddersfield Town 8 1 2 5 7 17 -10 5
17 Burnley 9 1 2 6 6 18 -12 5
18 Southampton 9 1 1 7 7 20 -13 4
19 Cardiff City 8 0 1 7 5 18 -13 1
20 Fulham 9 0 1 8 6 24 -18 1

So what do we make of this.  A home team that has picked up one win and two draws on its own patch, and an away team that has got one win and one draw.

A home team with a goal record of three for and 11 against against an away team with a record of seven for and 20 against.

Huddersfield really ought to start scoring a few more goals at home.

Huddersfield have been having a difficult season but they then had a little relief with three unbeaten matches – a long run for them.   But as they started to get carried away the bad times returned with four successive defeats.

Date Game Res Score Comp
05 Nov 2018 Huddersfield Town v Fulham W 1-0 Premier League
10 Nov 2018 Huddersfield Town v West Ham United D 1-1 Premier League
25 Nov 2018 Wolverhampton Wanderers v Huddersfield Town W 0-2 Premier League
01 Dec 2018 Huddersfield Town v Brighton and Hove Albion L 1-2 Premier League
04 Dec 2018 AFC Bournemouth v Huddersfield Town L 2-1 Premier League
08 Dec 2018 Arsenal v Huddersfield Town L 1-0 Premier League
15 Dec 2018 Huddersfield Town v Newcastle United L 0-1 Premier League
That victory over Arsenal brought to an end a very poor run for Southampton in the league
24 Nov 2018 Fulham v Southampton L 3-2 Premier League
01 Dec 2018 Southampton v Manchester United D 2-2 Premier League
05 Dec 2018 Tottenham Hotspur v Southampton L 3-1 Premier League
08 Dec 2018 Cardiff City v Southampton L 1-0 Premier League
16 Dec 2018 Southampton v Arsenal W 3-2 Premier League

But what is interesting is that leaving aside the Cardiff game, goals have been abounding.

I suspect the victory over Arsenal and the three goals scored will give Southampton a more gung ho attitude and they will go full on the attack.  If Huddersfield can find a way around Southampton’s defence which has already let in 20 goals in nine games they could well find they might get a point out of this.

But I would not go further than that.   A 2-2 draw perhaps simply because neither side know how to defend.

 

Arsenal v Tottenham (League Cup 19 Dec). The predictions

League cup games can be harder to predict because of the way that clubs can on occasion put out weaker teams but in the case of Arsenal v Tottenham we probably will see very strong teams from both sides because of the intensity of the competition.

Here is Arsenal’s home form

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Manchester City 9 9 0 0 33 6 27 27
2 Liverpool 8 7 1 0 18 2 16 22
3 Chelsea 9 6 3 0 19 7 12 21
4 Arsenal 9 6 2 1 17 8 9 20
5 Everton 9 5 3 1 16 9 7 18

Tottenham this season are top of the away form table, although partly this is because of their propensity for playing more away games than home (after they predicted their stadium would open not in 2019 but in September 2018.

To adjust for this a final column is added showing the average points away from home so far this season.

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts Av
1 Tottenham Hots 10 8 0 2 19 10 9 24 2.4
2 Liverpool 9 7 2 0 19 5 14 23 2.5
3 Manchester City 8 5 2 1 15 4 11 17 2.1
4 Chelsea 8 5 1 2 16 7 9 16 2.0
5 Arsenal 8 4 2 2 20 15 5 14 1.75

Tottenham’s ranking is still very good at 2.4 points per game, second only to Liverpool.

Using this method of average points, Tottenham might expect to beat Arsenal in the league cup match with their 2.4 points per game away from home against Arsenal’s 2.2 points at home.

The goals tally is very close.  Tottenham have 19 goals away from home, conceding ten.   Arsenal have scored 17 at home conceding eight.   So the goal difference is equal.  It looks like the match could come down to who is coping best with the number of injuries.  Both sides have been suffering this season in this regard.

Tottenham are top of the injury league with eight men out at present while Arsenal are on six men unavailable.  So both are suffering there, and I suspect the managers will not only look at the skill of any younger players they want to promote but also their ability to cope mentally with such a high tension occasion.  We may also note that Tottenham will be given a much higher number of tickets than normal.

Tottenham will be keen to avoid the storm Arsenal produced in the league game between the two when Arsenal came back from 2-1 down to win 4-2.   I think a tighter match will happen this time with the game ending in normal time 1-1.   What happens in injury time could be down to who is kicking who and how many players are left on the pitch.

Fulham v West Ham United: the match predictions

Predicting the result and score of Fulham v West Ham

The leage table spells out bad news for Fulham and indeed for Southampton this weekend.   We’ll come to Southampton shortly but for now looking at Fulham we can see they have only two wins thus far this season with two wins three draws and 11 defeats.    Their goal difference is shocking at 16 for and 40 against.  By far the worst in the League

Pos Club P W D L F A GD Pts
15 Newcastle United 16 3 4 9 13 22 -9 13
16 Crystal Palace 16 3 3 10 13 23 -10 12
17 Burnley 16 3 3 10 15 32 -17 12
18 Huddersfield T 16 2 4 10 10 27 -17 10
19 Southampton 16 1 6 9 13 30 -17 9
20 Fulham 16 2 3 11 16 40 -24 9

Looing just at home games however Fulham are far from being the worst club in the league

14 Wolverhampton 8 3 2 3 10 11 -1 11
15 Fulham 7 2 2 3 10 16 -6 8
16 Burnley 8 2 1 5 9 15 -6 7
17 Newcastle United 9 2 0 7 7 15 -8 6
18 Southampton 7 0 5 2 6 10 -4 5
19 Crystal Palace 7 1 2 4 4 8 -4 5
20 Huddersfield T 8 1 2 5 3 10 -7 5

Both of Fulham’s league victories have come at home – and they have two draws as well out of the three they have secured.  In other words their home form is low to middling, and they have a new manager which usually results in some sort of “new manager bounce” in terms of results.

Now for the table based on away form

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Tottenham H 10 8 0 2 19 10 9 24
2 Liverpool 9 7 2 0 19 5 14 23
3 Manchester City 8 5 2 1 15 4 11 17
4 Arsenal 7 4 2 1 18 12 6 14
5 Chelsea 7 4 1 2 14 6 8 13
6 Manchester Utd 8 3 2 3 14 15 -1 11
7 Leicester City 8 3 2 3 11 12 -1 11
8 Wolverhampton 8 3 2 3 7 8 -1 11
9 Bournemouth 7 3 0 4 11 12 -1 9
10 Watford 8 2 3 3 9 10 -1 9
11 West Ham Utd 7 2 2 3 9 11 -2 8

West Ham away have two wins and two draws, just as Fulham at home have.  The goal difference however is in West Ham’s favour – they have -2 GD while Fulham are at -6, some of which is down to the hammering Fulham took at home from Arsenal.

Here are the last five Fulham home games (all games are Premier League matches)

22 Sep 2018 Fulham v Watford D 1-1
07 Oct 2018 Fulham v Arsenal L 1-5
27 Oct 2018 Fulham v AFC Bournemouth L 0-3
24 Nov 2018 Fulham v Southampton W 3-2
05 Dec 2018 Fulham v Leicester City D 1-1

There is a real improvement in the last two games (although one might argue it would have been hard for it to get any worse) – and this in part is caused by a certain stability in the team.

West Ham away have looked more solid than one might have expected

16 Sep 2018 Everton v West Ham United W 1-3
05 Oct 2018 Brighton and Hove v West Ham Utd L 1-0
27 Oct 2018 Leicester City v West Ham United D 1-1
10 Nov 2018 Huddersfield Town v West Ham Utd D 1-1
01 Dec 2018 Newcastle United v West Ham Utd W 0-3

Curiously then if we look at recent results we could argue that both sides have a slight run of form – although this is stretching the use of the word “run”.

At home Fulham overall get scores akin to 1-2 while West Ham away get 1-1.  Fulham unbeaten in two at home and West Ham unbeaten in three away suggests a draw, as does the fact that out of those last five games (two home for Fulham and three away for West Ham) three have been draws.

I’ll go for 1-1.

 

 

Huddersfield v Newcastle: predicting the outcome

 

Huddersfield’s home form this season is one of the worst in the league – in fact only Southampton and Fulham have picked up fewer points.

Pos Club P W D L F A GD Pts
16 Crystal Palace 16 3 3 10 13 23 -10 12
17 Burnley 16 3 3 10 15 32 -17 12
18 Huddersfield Town 16 2 4 10 10 27 -17 10
19 Southampton 16 1 6 9 13 30 -17 9
20 Fulham 16 2 3 11 16 40 -24 9

And they are scoring well under one goal a game but letting in almost three per game.  Fairly poor for a home team.

Newcastle United have hardly been setting the world on fire but away from home there is a curious point about their results.   First here is the away games table…

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Tottenham Hotspur 10 8 0 2 19 10 9 24
2 Liverpool 9 7 2 0 19 5 14 23
3 Manchester City 8 5 2 1 15 4 11 17
4 Arsenal 7 4 2 1 18 12 6 14
5 Chelsea 7 4 1 2 14 6 8 13
6 Manchester United 8 3 2 3 14 15 -1 11
7 Leicester City 8 3 2 3 11 12 -1 11
8 Wolverhampton W 8 3 2 3 7 8 -1 11
9 AFC Bournemouth 7 3 0 4 11 12 -1 9
10 Watford 8 2 3 3 9 10 -1 9
11 West Ham United 7 2 2 3 9 11 -2 8
12 Newcastle United 7 1 4 2 6 7 -1 7

They have indeed only won one game but they have drawn four and lost two.   Goals are scarce but much more balanced than Huddersfield, at six for, seven against, thus suggesting a 1-1 result for them is not impossibe.

Huddersfield’s record shows that the last five games have all been low scoring at home – one wonders how the home support put up with this.  Five games with a total of eight goals.

And also to be noted is that they have lost their last three games: twice by 1-2 and the third time by 1-0.

29 Sep Huddersfield Town v Tottenham Hotspur L 0-2
20 Oct Huddersfield Town v Liverpool L 0-1
05 Nov Huddersfield Town v Fulham W 1-0
10 Nov Huddersfield Town v West Ham United D 1-1
01 Dec Huddersfield Town v Brighton and Hove Albion L 1-2

There is however only one win in the last five home games, and that against Fulham, who are finding any sort of result other than a defeat hard to get anywhere.

Newcastle on the other had have been doing ok away from home with just one defeat in the last five.

22 Sep Crystal Palace v Newcastle Utd D 0-0
6 Oct Manchester Utd v Newcastle Utd L 3–2
27 Oct Southampton v Newcastle United D 0-0
26 Nov Burnley v Newcastle United W 1-2
05 Dec Everton v Newcastle United D 1-1

One win in five away games is not that good, but only one defeat too, and that by just 3-2.

This looks to me like a Newcastle win by 2-1 or 2-0.  Maybe even 3-1.

Other predictions for this weekend

 

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Bournemouth: the predictions

In terms of home form Wolverhampton Wanderers are dead on mid-table

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Liverpool 16 13 3 0 34 6 28 42
2 Manchester City 16 13 2 1 45 9 36 41
3 Tottenham Hotspur 16 12 0 4 30 16 14 36
4 Chelsea 16 10 4 2 33 13 20 34
5 Arsenal 16 10 4 2 35 20 15 34
6 Manchester United 16 7 5 4 28 26 2 26
7 Everton 16 6 6 4 23 19 4 24
8 AFC Bournemouth 16 7 2 7 25 26 -1 23
9 Leicester City 16 6 4 6 21 20 1 22
10 Wolverhampton W 16 6 4 6 17 19 -2 22

Away from home Bournemouth are in much the same position.  Here’s the table just showing away games…

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Tottenham Hotspur 10 8 0 2 19 10 9 24
2 Liverpool 9 7 2 0 19 5 14 23
3 Manchester City 8 5 2 1 15 4 11 17
4 Arsenal 7 4 2 1 18 12 6 14
5 Chelsea 7 4 1 2 14 6 8 13
6 Manchester United 8 3 2 3 14 15 -1 11
7 Leicester City 8 3 2 3 11 12 -1 11
8 Wolverhampton W 8 3 2 3 7 8 -1 11
9 AFC Bournemouth 7 3 0 4 11 12 -1 9

Interestingly Wolverhampton at home and Bournemouth away both have negative goal differences, and just one goal apart, Wolverhampton at home on -2 and Bournemouth away on -1.

But Bournemouth are scoring and conceding at a much lower rate away than Wolverhampton are achieving at home.

Here are Wolverhampton’s home games of late

29 Sep 2018 Wolverhampton W v Southampton W 2-0 Premier League
20 Oct 2018 Wolverhampton W v Watford L 0-2 Premier League
03 Nov 2018 Wolverhampton W v Tottenham H L 2-3 Premier League
25 Nov 2018 Wolverhampton W v Huddersfield T L 0-2 Premier League
05 Dec 2018 Wolverhampton v Chelsea W 2-1 Premier League

Two wins and three defeats in the last five.

Bournemouth away also delivers three defeats and two wins.  It seems neither team wants to get away from the rut.

22 Sep 2018 Burnley v AFC Bournemouth L 4-0 Premier League
06 Oct 2018 Watford v AFC Bournemouth W 0-4 Premier League
27 Oct 2018 Fulham v AFC Bournemouth W 0-3 Premier League
10 Nov 2018 Newcastle United v AFC Bournemouth L 2-1 Premier League
01 Dec 2018 Manchester City v AFC Bournemouth L 3-1 Premier League

Wolverhampton have the advantage in that they are at home and their last match was a stonking 2-1 victory over Chelsea.  With the scoring records overall of these two we might go for a goalless draw, but there have been 18 goals in these last five Bournemouth away games and 14 in the last five Wolverhampton home win.

This suggests goals; three a game in fact, possibly four.  One might even start looking at a 2-2 draw.  Otherwise we are thinking that the 2-1 win over Chelsea could give Wolverhampton confidence and they migh squeeze out the win – again 2-1, although 3-1 if Bournemouth lose heart near the end.

Tottenham Hotspur v Burnley: result predictions

Tottenham reached the knock out stages of the Champions League this week which is being celebrated as a great achievement by the club.   

That will undoubtedly cause a distraction in the New Year but for now this can be set aside as they return to league action with a home match against Burnley.

Here is their home form thus far.

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Liverpool 16 13 3 0 34 6 28 42
2 Manchester City 16 13 2 1 45 9 36 41
3 Tottenham Hotspur 16 12 0 4 30 16 14 36
4 Chelsea 16 10 4 2 33 13 20 34
5 Arsenal 16 10 4 2 35 20 15 34

Curiously Tottenham’s home form continues to be worse than their away form, and it is unusual indeed to see a team in the top four having lost 25% of their home matches.   Their goals conceded while not as many as Arsenal who are fifth in the home games table, is still high at one a game.

The cause of this is probably their uncertainty in terms of playing at Wembley because of the on-going delays to the completion of their new stadium, and the constant drip drip drip of stories about problems with sub-contractors employed directly by Tottenham themselves.  It is an approach that can save money but means when things go wrong there is no one to blame but themselves.

Burnley are of course a totally different case – having gained a position in the Europa League they then managed to let it slip through their fingers, and now instead of building on what was seen last season as an over achievement they are now sitting at the bottom end of the table.

Here is the foot of the table with both home and away games included

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
15 Newcastle United 16 3 4 9 13 22 -9 13
16 Crystal Palace 16 3 3 10 13 23 -10 12
17 Burnley 16 3 3 10 15 32 -17 12
18 Huddersfield Town 16 2 4 10 10 27 -17 10
19 Southampton 16 1 6 9 13 30 -17 9
20 Fulham 16 2 3 11 16 40 -24 9

This puts Burnley in the position of welcoming every point they can pick up.

In terms of away games only here is how it looks

16 Huddersfield Town 8 1 2 5 7 17 -10 5
17 Burnley 8 1 2 5 6 17 -11 5
18 Southampton 9 1 1 7 7 20 -13 4
19 Cardiff City 7 0 1 6 3 15 -12 1
20 Fulham 9 0 1 8 6 24 -18 1

Tottenham’s average home score is 2-1.  Burnley’s average away score is 1-2, which is a perfect match and suggests it will indeed be 2-1 to Tottenham.

Part of the impact on away teams of course is the fact that they are playing at Wembley – and for many players in lower ranked teams this will be their only time of playing at Wembley, so their managers have an easy job of motivating them – “it’s Wembley lads, go out and make your mark”.

That could be a motivating factor against Tottenham.   And there could be the Champions League.   Their draw with Barcelona meant that not only did they play a game mid-week which Burnley (not being in the Europa any more as noted) did not, but also they put everything possible into getting that unlikely draw.  

To come back to earth and play a team as near the bottom of the table as Burnley, at a ground where they have already lost four times, might just be the problem.

2-1 remains the obvious result but there is that caveat.

Coming back from a Champions League match Tottenham have had mixed results

18 Sep Internazionale v Tottenham H L 2-1 Champions League
22 Sep Brighton and Hove  v Tottenham H W 1-2 Premier League
03 Oct Tottenham Hotspur v Barcelona L 2-4 Champions League
06 Oct Tottenham Hotspur v Cardiff City W 1-0 Premier League
24 Oct PSV Eindhoven v Tottenham H D 2-2 Champions League
29 Oct Tottenham Hotspur v Man City L 0-1 Premier League
06 Nov Tottenham Hotspur v PSV W 2-1 Champions League
10 Nov Crystal Palace v Tottenham H W 0-1 Premier League
28 Nov Tottenham H v Internazionale W 1-0 Champions League
02 Dec Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur L 4-2 Premier League
11 Dec Barcelona v Tottenham Hotspur D 1-1 Champions League

In the first two matches they won their league game after a Champs result.  The third game they drew and then lost.  In the fourth they won both in the Champs and the Premier League.  Then they won in the Champions League and lost to Arsenal in the Premier League.    Three wins two defeats.

If Burnley have a chance of doing better than a 2-1 defeat it will be because of Tottenham’s reaction to the draw with Barcelona and their celebrations at getting through to the knock out stage.

 

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